Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $806 held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$806.06

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

1¢ → 0.4¢

-64% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$771.58

Total Shares257,194

Combined PnL$-1.5K

No3 traders

Total Value$34.48

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$0.43

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

105 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$2.1K	$607.52	$-1.4K	47% 217-240 (457)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$208.24	$102.19	-$106.05	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$72.14	$61.83	-$10.31	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$24.12	$24.51	+$0.39	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
DI Diabolical-Prize<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$5	$4.98	+$0.02	48% 175-192 (367)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$4.96	$4.98	+$0.02	73% 41-15 (56)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$53.55	$0.05	+$0.05	49% 1830-1896 (3726)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,077.48

Value

$607.52

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$208.24

Value

$102.19

PnL

-$106.05

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.14

Value

$61.83

PnL

-$10.31

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$24.12

Value

$24.51

PnL

+$0.39

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Diabolical-Prize<$100

Invested

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

175-192 (367)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.55

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

105 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6959.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7059.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.