Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 99¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 1

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$20.6K

Combined PnL

$14.3K

Smart Money Entry

28.2¢ → 99.4¢

+252% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$20.5K

Total Shares20,705

Combined PnL+$14.7K

No1 trader

Total Value$1.37

Total Shares687

Combined PnL-$439.96

Yes — 86%No — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
George.Smiley	Yesavg 28.3¢	$4.9K	$17.1K	+$12.2K	62% 142-88 (230)
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Yesavg 31.2¢	$844.15	$2.7K	+$1.8K	50% 415-417 (832)
DE dedidanc	Yesavg 13.3¢	$75.58	$564.65	+$488.5	57% 103-77 (180)
2B9S	Yesavg 20.9¢	$31.37	$158.06	+$126.69	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Yesavg 72.5¢	$28.22	$38.58	+$10.36	50% 357-357 (714)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$4.2	$29.78	+$25.58	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
The-JokerCTR	Noavg 64.7¢	$441.34	$1.37	-$439.96	68% 1507-701 (2208)

George.Smiley

Yes

Invested

$4,862.05

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$12.2K

Record

62%

142-88 (230)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Yes

Invested

$844.15

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

dedidanc

Yes

Invested

$75.58

Value

$564.65

PnL

+$488.5

Record

57%

103-77 (180)

2B9S

Yes

Invested

$31.37

Value

$158.06

PnL

+$126.69

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.22

Value

$38.58

PnL

+$10.36

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.2

Value

$29.78

PnL

+$25.58

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

The-JokerCTR

Invested

$441.34

Value

$1.37

PnL

-$439.96

Record

68%

1507-701 (2208)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.