Consensus PnL $57K · win rate 75% (144–49, n=193) · PM monthly #508 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$56.6K
Record
144W / 49L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 193 settled
Batting Avg
56.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#579
Source
PM monthly #508
Trades
415
Markets
254
Volume
$591.8K
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 8 on the consensus side (75%)- Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Yes $17K · now 99¢ · in at 28¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $9.5K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $7.3K · now 73¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $930 · now 71¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?No $575 · now 92¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $363 · now 12¢ · in at 17¢with the consensus (91% of 32)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $254 · now 16¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (No)
- Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Yes $84 · now 41¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
158 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 73¢- Tech
+20 pts
side won 93% of 82 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +18%
- Geopolitics
+18 pts
side won 93% of 15 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +4%
- Finance
+19 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 45% of 20)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 64% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 93% of 15)
- 70¢ and up: 69%(won 99% of 109)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.