Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 36¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$2.4K
-$306.74
41.3¢ → 35.5¢
-14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
701h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaaCTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$192.93 | 56% 836-644 (1480) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 42.7¢ | $754.31 | $591.12 | -$189.65 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 51.3¢ | $227.93 | $360.44 | +$132.5 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
 IstarothCTR | Yesavg 53.6¢ | $109.84 | $69.02 | -$40.82 | 18% 365-1635 (2000) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.1¢ | $64.37 | $43.08 | -$21.28 | 57% 47-36 (83) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $19.23 | $24.78 | +$3.7 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $10.5 | $12.25 | +$1.75 | 50% 7969-8009 (15978) |
paddaaCTRInvested
$1,478.85
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$192.93
Record
56%
836-644 (1480)
Invested
$754.31
Value
$591.12
PnL
-$189.65
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$227.93
Value
$360.44
PnL
+$132.5
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
IstarothCTRInvested
$109.84
Value
$69.02
PnL
-$40.82
Record
18%
365-1635 (2000)
EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100Invested
$64.37
Value
$43.08
PnL
-$21.28
Record
57%
47-36 (83)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$19.23
Value
$24.78
PnL
+$3.7
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$12.25
PnL
+$1.75
Record
50%
7969-8009 (15978)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.