Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $15K held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$15.0K
$3.4K
68.5¢ → 96.5¢
+41% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
1679h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA pako | Noavg 68.2¢ | $9.7K | $11.6K | +$2.8K | 65% 250-132 (382) |
 vinii | Noavg 73.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$116.15 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Noavg 66¢ | $792.25 | $1.2K | +$365.15 | 63% 353-204 (557) |
 PMTraderAdam | Noavg 66.4¢ | $379.05 | $412.21 | +$33.16 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
TT tttt123 | Noavg 64¢ | $128 | $192.8 | +$64.8 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
 fireponbabylon<$100 | Noavg 61.6¢ | $16.68 | $26.12 | +$9.44 | 43% 370-481 (851) |
 BigRabbit<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $3.35 | $4.83 | +$1.47 | 40% 704-1062 (1766) |
Invested
$9,729.9
Value
$11.6K
PnL
+$2.8K
Record
65%
250-132 (382)
viniiInvested
$1,569.78
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$116.15
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
Invested
$792.25
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$365.15
Record
63%
353-204 (557)
PMTraderAdamInvested
$379.05
Value
$412.21
PnL
+$33.16
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
Invested
$128
Value
$192.8
PnL
+$64.8
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
fireponbabylon<$100Invested
$16.68
Value
$26.12
PnL
+$9.44
Record
43%
370-481 (851)
BigRabbit<$100Invested
$3.35
Value
$4.83
PnL
+$1.47
Record
40%
704-1062 (1766)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.