Will UTJ win 7-8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$354.07

Smart Money Entry

77.6¢ → 99¢

+28% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,676

Combined PnL+$359.47

No2 traders

Total Value$0.19

Total Shares19

Combined PnL-$5.4

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

410h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Yesavg 85.8¢	$819	$945.44	+$126.44	63% 165-98 (263)
ME melonmanm	Yesavg 66.1¢	$422.13	$632.04	+$209.91	65% 526-281 (807)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 60.9¢	$31.3	$51.48	+$20.18	32% 4493-9634 (14127)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 98.3¢	$19.99	$20.14	+$0.14	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
Sardinianshepherd<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$7.1	$9.9	+$2.8	65% 928-506 (1434)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$3.89	$0.14	-$3.75	78% 283-79 (362)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$1.7	$0.05	-$1.65	50% 7969-8009 (15978)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Yes

Invested

$819

Value

$945.44

PnL

+$126.44

Record

63%

165-98 (263)

melonmanm

Yes

Invested

$422.13

Value

$632.04

PnL

+$209.91

Record

65%

526-281 (807)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.3

Value

$51.48

PnL

+$20.18

Record

32%

4493-9634 (14127)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.99

Value

$20.14

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

Sardinianshepherd<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.1

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$2.8

Record

65%

928-506 (1434)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100

Invested

$3.89

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$3.75

Record

78%

283-79 (362)

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.65

Record

50%

7969-8009 (15978)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

410h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.