Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 98¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$7.3K

Smart Money Entry

11¢ → 98.4¢

+797% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares8,491

Combined PnL+$7.4K

No2 traders

Total Value$76.3

Total Shares1,107

Combined PnL-$97.26

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

235h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Yesavg 6.5¢	$244.83	$3.7K	+$3.5K	57% 16830-12616 (29446)
10 101456	Yesavg 2.2¢	$73.16	$3.3K	+$3.2K	53% 143-129 (272)
LA lava-lava	Yesavg 33¢	$142.58	$425.16	+$282.57	43% 535-721 (1256)
Lucerys	Yesavg 21.6¢	$89.5	$407.76	+$318.26	79% 10611-2762 (13373)
The-Joker	Yesavg 78.3¢	$290.82	$365.53	+$74.71	68% 1517-711 (2228)
AH aHjCz	Yesavg 36.5¢	$45.09	$121.63	+$76.54	44% 4031-5222 (9253)
MA Maki777CTR	Noavg 9.4¢	$113.64	$74.59	-$39.05	38% 9-15 (24)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 90.6¢	$45.29	$49.2	+$3.91	54% 7712-6458 (14170)
MA mamboNB5CTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$59.92	$1.71	-$58.21	64% 223-123 (346)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Yes

Invested

$244.83

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

57%

16830-12616 (29446)

101456

Yes

Invested

$73.16

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

53%

143-129 (272)

lava-lava

Yes

Invested

$142.58

Value

$425.16

PnL

+$282.57

Record

43%

535-721 (1256)

Lucerys

Yes

Invested

$89.5

Value

$407.76

PnL

+$318.26

Record

79%

10611-2762 (13373)

The-Joker

Yes

Invested

$290.82

Value

$365.53

PnL

+$74.71

Record

68%

1517-711 (2228)

aHjCz

Yes

Invested

$45.09

Value

$121.63

PnL

+$76.54

Record

44%

4031-5222 (9253)

Maki777CTR

Invested

$113.64

Value

$74.59

PnL

-$39.05

Record

38%

9-15 (24)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.29

Value

$49.2

PnL

+$3.91

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

mamboNB5CTR<$100

Invested

$59.92

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$58.21

Record

64%

223-123 (346)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

235h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.