Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 98¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 2

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$607.55

Smart Money Entry

87.2¢ → 98.4¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares8,797

Combined PnL+$996.93

No1 trader

Total Value$59.86

Total Shares4,605

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Yes — 86%No — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

128h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 86.3¢	$4.4K	$5.1K	+$630.34	61% 208-133 (341)
Michael-The-Taxiarch	Yesavg 76.8¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$309.73	54% 41-35 (76)
MI Miojinho	Yesavg 95.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$35	58% 72-53 (125)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Yesavg 96¢	$118.49	$816.77	+$20.87	40% 928-1396 (2324)
Relaccsed	Yesavg 99¢	$186.4	$187.02	+$1	56% 1226-972 (2198)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 99.3¢	$77.23	$77.23	+$0	77% 11706-3594 (15300)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Noavg 35.5¢	$1.6K	$59.86	$-1.6K	50% 1226-1243 (2469)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$4,423.11

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$630.34

Record

61%

208-133 (341)

Michael-The-Taxiarch

Yes

Invested

$1,096.5

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$309.73

Record

54%

41-35 (76)

Miojinho

Yes

Invested

$1,147.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$35

Record

58%

72-53 (125)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Yes

Invested

$118.49

Value

$816.77

PnL

+$20.87

Record

40%

928-1396 (2324)

Relaccsed

Yes

Invested

$186.4

Value

$187.02

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

1226-972 (2198)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.23

Value

$77.23

PnL

+$0

Record

77%

11706-3594 (15300)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Invested

$1,634.43

Value

$59.86

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

50%

1226-1243 (2469)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

128h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.