Consensus PnL $26K · win rate 55% (47–39, n=86) · PM monthly #570 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$26.1K
Record
47W / 39L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 86 settled
Batting Avg
73.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1542
Source
PM monthly #570
Record (90 d)
40/90 · 44%
Trades
1,190
Markets
112
Volume
$363.3K
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 11 on the consensus side (55%)- Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?No $3.3K · now 76¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
- Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?No $1.4K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?Yes $1.4K · now 98¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?No $1.4K · now 87¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Yes $856 · now 89¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (47% of 17)
- Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?No $740 · now 19¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $450 · now 47¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Yes $183 · now 11¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
87 settled consensus markets · held side won 44% at an average entry of 42¢- Elections
+5 pts
side won 31% of 29 · avg entry 26¢
ROI +1%
- Crypto
+2 pts
side won 57% of 14 · avg entry 55¢
ROI −4%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 33% of 12 at an average 40¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 47%(won 5% of 41)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 45% of 11)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 70% of 10)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 96% of 25)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.