Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$112.44

Smart Money Entry

77.7¢ → 99.5¢

+28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,946

Combined PnL+$416.16

Yes3 traders

Total Value$25.09

Total Shares3,388

Combined PnL-$528.6

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cat-dog	Noavg 80.3¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$257.37	77% 104-31 (135)
SH shovelingdigging	Noavg 57.7¢	$186.93	$323.92	+$134.07	61% 346-220 (566)
0X 0x5095e97281f28d4d8549fd3834802c24cbb793e	Noavg 89¢	$210.14	$235.88	+$24.79	52% 302-277 (579)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.55	$15.55	-$0.06	28% 5971-15675 (21646)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR	Yesavg 16.2¢	$466.17	$14.87	-$451.3	36% 636-1125 (1761)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yes	$10.21	$10.21	-$76.85	50% 7853-7908 (15761)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$0.48	$0.01	-$0.46	17% 221-1070 (1291)

cat-dog

Invested

$1,099.86

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$257.37

Record

77%

104-31 (135)

shovelingdigging

Invested

$186.93

Value

$323.92

PnL

+$134.07

Record

61%

346-220 (566)

0x5095e97281f28d4d8549fd3834802c24cbb793e

Invested

$210.14

Value

$235.88

PnL

+$24.79

Record

52%

302-277 (579)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$15.55

Value

$15.55

PnL

-$0.06

Record

28%

5971-15675 (21646)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR

Yes

Invested

$466.17

Value

$14.87

PnL

-$451.3

Record

36%

636-1125 (1761)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.21

Value

$10.21

PnL

-$76.85

Record

50%

7853-7908 (15761)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.46

Record

17%

221-1070 (1291)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.