Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of November 9 2026?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$1.6K
-$17.36
73.4¢ → 95¢
+29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO Tokor | Noavg 68¢ | $680 | $915 | +$235 | 50% 89-89 (178) |
TE test456y78 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $290.52 | $301.04 | +$10.52 | 18% 13-61 (74) |
 PippiTrader | Noavg 72.9¢ | $174.65 | $182.74 | +$36.88 | 37% 14-24 (38) |
 EgoVolaeCTR | Yesavg 27.9¢ | $389.01 | $113.92 | -$270.59 | — 6-7 (13) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 85.3¢ | $203.95 | $49.93 | +$8.42 | 38% 58-96 (154) |
HU hugecaulkCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $54.25 | $14.88 | -$39.38 | 5% 1-19 (20) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.65 | $2.75 | +$2.1 | 12% 34-241 (275) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.2¢ | $1.92 | $1.61 | -$0.31 | 47% 1401-1566 (2967) |
Invested
$680
Value
$915
PnL
+$235
Record
50%
89-89 (178)
Invested
$290.52
Value
$301.04
PnL
+$10.52
Record
18%
13-61 (74)
PippiTraderInvested
$174.65
Value
$182.74
PnL
+$36.88
Record
37%
14-24 (38)
EgoVolaeCTRInvested
$389.01
Value
$113.92
PnL
-$270.59
Record
—
6-7 (13)
HaradwaithInvested
$203.95
Value
$49.93
PnL
+$8.42
Record
38%
58-96 (154)
Invested
$54.25
Value
$14.88
PnL
-$39.38
Record
5%
1-19 (20)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.65
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$2.1
Record
12%
34-241 (275)
Invested
$1.92
Value
$1.61
PnL
-$0.31
Record
47%
1401-1566 (2967)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.