Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in November?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$3.7K
$63.57
57.5¢ → 52.5¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
181h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816 | Yesavg 56¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$116.83 | 0% 2-647 (649) |
 boyau | Yesavg 60.6¢ | $943.44 | $943.44 | +$0 | 37% 125-209 (334) |
 EgoVolaeCTR | Noavg 40.3¢ | $1.7K | $741 | -$23.33 | — 6-7 (13) |
C0 C03BCTR | Noavg 45.3¢ | $680 | $195 | -$85 | 87% 231-34 (265) |
 PippiTraderCTR | Noavg 41.4¢ | $330.67 | $170.15 | +$35.46 | 37% 14-24 (38) |
DI Dimpled-Foal | Yesavg 51.6¢ | $114.91 | $131.85 | +$19.14 | — 0-11 (11) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $3.1 | $3.03 | -$0.07 | 85% 29-5 (34) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $3.03 | +$0.53 | 12% 34-241 (275) |
Invested
$1,408.02
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$116.83
Record
0%
2-647 (649)
boyauInvested
$943.44
Value
$943.44
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
125-209 (334)
EgoVolaeCTRInvested
$1,702.5
Value
$741
PnL
-$23.33
Record
—
6-7 (13)
Invested
$680
Value
$195
PnL
-$85
Record
87%
231-34 (265)
PippiTraderCTRInvested
$330.67
Value
$170.15
PnL
+$35.46
Record
37%
14-24 (38)
Invested
$114.91
Value
$131.85
PnL
+$19.14
Record
—
0-11 (11)
Invested
$3.1
Value
$3.03
PnL
-$0.07
Record
85%
29-5 (34)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$2.5
Value
$3.03
PnL
+$0.53
Record
12%
34-241 (275)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.