Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in November?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 99¢ · $25K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$25.2K
$167.66
97.9¢ → 98.7¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
61h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chriszyy3 | Noavg 98¢ | $17.8K | $17.9K | +$134.58 | 94% 242-16 (258) |
 XAE12Archangel | Noavg 97.8¢ | $4.6K | $4.6K | +$43.25 | 66% 784-407 (1191) |
ST stupid22 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$26.72 | 94% 412-26 (438) |
HU hugecaulkCTR | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $134.49 | $116.56 | -$31.38 | — 2-12 (14) |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $98.6 | $98.7 | +$0.1 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
SM SmallFishGamblerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $50 | $44.39 | -$5.61 | 44% 20-25 (45) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.91 | +$0 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
Invested
$17,759.76
Value
$17.9K
PnL
+$134.58
Record
94%
242-16 (258)
XAE12ArchangelInvested
$4,559.63
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$43.25
Record
66%
784-407 (1191)
Invested
$2,417.55
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$26.72
Record
94%
412-26 (438)
Invested
$134.49
Value
$116.56
PnL
-$31.38
Record
—
2-12 (14)
Talophex<$100Invested
$98.6
Value
$98.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
Invested
$50
Value
$44.39
PnL
-$5.61
Record
44%
20-25 (45)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.91
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.