Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Xavier Becerra win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$2.1K
$61.63
64.8¢ → 46.5¢
-28% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 34.1¢ | $832.4 | $1.3K | +$485.78 | 61% 209-133 (342) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 65¢ | $1.0K | $312.73 | -$191.94 | 35% 17512-32753 (50265) |
 IstarothCTR | Noavg 66¢ | $424.03 | $228.96 | -$130.23 | 16% 427-2295 (2722) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Noavg 63¢ | $189 | $216 | -$44.2 | 54% 22016-19110 (41126) |
LP lpgbCTR | Noavg 65.8¢ | $168.36 | $87.16 | -$52.07 | 25% 302-922 (1224) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $22.57 | $17.58 | -$5 | 17% 1063-5309 (6372) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 52.5¢ | $5.25 | $4.5 | -$0.75 | 50% 473-472 (945) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $0.49 | $0.51 | +$0.03 | 42% 1829-2511 (4340) |
Invested
$832.4
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$485.78
Record
61%
209-133 (342)
Invested
$1,039.43
Value
$312.73
PnL
-$191.94
Record
35%
17512-32753 (50265)
IstarothCTRInvested
$424.03
Value
$228.96
PnL
-$130.23
Record
16%
427-2295 (2722)
Invested
$189
Value
$216
PnL
-$44.2
Record
54%
22016-19110 (41126)
Invested
$168.36
Value
$87.16
PnL
-$52.07
Record
25%
302-922 (1224)
Invested
$22.57
Value
$17.58
PnL
-$5
Record
17%
1063-5309 (6372)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$0.75
Record
50%
473-472 (945)
Invested
$0.49
Value
$0.51
PnL
+$0.03
Record
42%
1829-2511 (4340)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.