Consensus PnL $9.7K · win rate 58% (490–358, n=848) · PM monthly #198 · holds 56 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$9.7K
Record
490W / 358L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 848 settled
Batting Avg
45.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1353
Source
PM monthly #198
Record (90 d)
21/106 · 20%
Trades
1,459
Markets
1,453
Volume
$27.8K
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Top consensus positions
56 in listed consensus markets · 33 of 56 on the consensus side (59%)- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $1.2K · now 61¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (79% of 55)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $966 · now 41¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?No $487 · now 59¢ · in at 63¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?No $363 · now 41¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?No $228 · now 64¢ · in at 59¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?No $191 · now 51¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?No $187 · now 49¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?No $139 · now 37¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
70 settled consensus markets · held side won 21% at an average entry of 26¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where anothercoin's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Elections — held side won 19% of 26 at an average 25¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI +16%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 77%(won 0% of 54)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 50% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 100% of 14)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.