Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 100¢ · $960 held · ends Apr 19, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Apr 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 14%

Total Value

$960.01

Combined PnL

-$372.55

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$934.31

Total Shares935

Combined PnL+$3.25

Yes6 traders

Total Value$25.7

Total Shares51,395

Combined PnL-$375.79

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

24 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 99.6¢	$855.47	$934.31	+$3.25	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$15.4	$15.4	-$225.27	7% 14-187 (201)
FL flawfenceCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$62.91	$4.03	-$58.88	46% 271-319 (590)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$43.53	$2.79	-$40.8	47% 83-94 (177)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$2.4	$2.4	-$35.03	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.15	$0.93	-$13.62	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yes	$0.15	$0.15	-$2.19	57% 3068-2356 (5424)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$855.47

Value

$934.31

PnL

+$3.25

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.4

Value

$15.4

PnL

-$225.27

Record

14-187 (201)

flawfenceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.91

Value

$4.03

PnL

-$58.88

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.53

Value

$2.79

PnL

-$40.8

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$35.03

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$13.62

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$2.19

Record

57%

3068-2356 (5424)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

24 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.