Will Yaxel Lendeborg win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 66¢ · $447 held · ends May 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 100%
$447.45
-$1.53
66.2¢ → 66¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 66%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Late
372h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 65.2¢ | $158.45 | $160.16 | +$1.71 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 67.2¢ | $96.3 | $94.46 | -$1.84 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 64.8¢ | $76.46 | $77.78 | +$1.31 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 68.9¢ | $41.33 | $39.57 | -$1.76 | 31% 2735-6214 (8949) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 64.3¢ | $27.3 | $28.01 | +$0.7 | 37% 3224-5382 (8606) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 67.2¢ | $28.23 | $27.7 | -$0.53 | 51% 4670-4532 (9202) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 69.7¢ | $20.91 | $19.79 | -$1.13 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
Invested
$158.45
Value
$160.16
PnL
+$1.71
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$96.3
Value
$94.46
PnL
-$1.84
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$76.46
Value
$77.78
PnL
+$1.31
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$41.33
Value
$39.57
PnL
-$1.76
Record
31%
2735-6214 (8949)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$27.3
Value
$28.01
PnL
+$0.7
Record
37%
3224-5382 (8606)
balthazar<$100Invested
$28.23
Value
$27.7
PnL
-$0.53
Record
51%
4670-4532 (9202)
Invested
$20.91
Value
$19.79
PnL
-$1.13
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.