Chennai Open: Aliona Falei vs Magda Linette
4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Magda Linette (40%) · Magda Linette at 66¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Magda Linette
10
Magda Linette 40%
$4.4K
$47.47
65¢ → 65.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMagda Linette at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA BaltazarGombka | Magda Linetteavg 65¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$33.08 | 66% 285-144 (429) |
 RN1CTR | Aliona Faleiavg 35¢ | $940.37 | $913.5 | +$13.43 | 54% 58116-50356 (108472) |
HI hi774cCTR | Aliona Faleiavg 34¢ | $412.08 | $412.08 | +$0 | 51% 4852-4594 (9446) |
38 38791873984189 | Magda Linette | $315.33 | $315.33 | +$0 | 47% 12972-14546 (27518) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR | Aliona Faleiavg 34¢ | $245.47 | $245.47 | -$0 | 46% 9226-10934 (20160) |
NO NotJumpCTR | Aliona Faleiavg 35¢ | $175.54 | $178.05 | +$2.51 | 42% 7723-10451 (18174) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Magda Linetteavg 64¢ | $49 | $50 | +$1 | 54% 5902-4952 (10854) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Magda Linetteavg 66¢ | $54.59 | $35.76 | -$0.27 | 56% 7456-5978 (13434) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Aliona Faleiavg 37¢ | $32.5 | $29.91 | -$2.6 | 61% 13840-8746 (22586) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Aliona Faleiavg 34¢ | $21.76 | $21.76 | +$0.32 | 50% 4008-3990 (7998) |
Invested
$2,150
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$33.08
Record
66%
285-144 (429)
RN1CTRInvested
$940.37
Value
$913.5
PnL
+$13.43
Record
54%
58116-50356 (108472)
Invested
$412.08
Value
$412.08
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
4852-4594 (9446)
Invested
$315.33
Value
$315.33
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
12972-14546 (27518)
Invested
$245.47
Value
$245.47
PnL
-$0
Record
46%
9226-10934 (20160)
Invested
$175.54
Value
$178.05
PnL
+$2.51
Record
42%
7723-10451 (18174)
Invested
$49
Value
$50
PnL
+$1
Record
54%
5902-4952 (10854)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$54.59
Value
$35.76
PnL
-$0.27
Record
56%
7456-5978 (13434)
Invested
$32.5
Value
$29.91
PnL
-$2.6
Record
61%
13840-8746 (22586)
Invested
$21.76
Value
$21.76
PnL
+$0.32
Record
50%
4008-3990 (7998)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
BaltazarGombka
Magda Linette — $2.2K
RN1
CTRAliona Falei — $913.5
hi774c
CTRAliona Falei — $412.08
38791873984189
Magda Linette — $315.33
0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382
CTRAliona Falei — $245.47
NotJump
CTRAliona Falei — $178.05
Eulhunter
Magda Linette — $50
0xheavy888
Magda Linette — $35.76
Lilybaeum
CTRAliona Falei — $29.91
NatoAlfista
CTRAliona Falei — $21.76