Villarreal CF vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 6.5

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 92¢ · $49K held · ended Nov 3

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$49.1K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

82.1¢ → 91.5¢

+11% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 17 top traders (71%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under12 traders

Total Value$44.7K

Total Shares47,686

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Over5 traders

Total Value$27.8

Total Shares327

Combined PnL-$35.18

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 81¢	$16.8K	$19.0K	+$2.2K	73% 2837-1073 (3910)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 88.3¢	$12.8K	$10.4K	$-2.4K	56% 7565-5995 (13560)
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 84.5¢	$9.4K	$10.2K	+$772.19	54% 1201-1025 (2226)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 20.2¢	$3.5K	$1.9K	$-1.6K	53% 59145-51446 (110591)
└ Over leg	Overavg 20.2¢	$3.3K	$1.4K	$-1.9K
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.3¢	$240.91	$520.75	+$279.84
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 20¢	$2.4K	$1.8K	-$527.36	50% 27376-27294 (54670)
└ Under leg	Underavg 65.7¢	$853.27	$1.2K	+$334.47
└ Over leg	Overavg 20¢	$1.5K	$637.75	-$861.83
VE Venusian	Underavg 63.5¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$488.55	53% 961-861 (1822)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 80.6¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$141.24	50% 20263-20587 (40850)
SL SlickRick123	Underavg 47¢	$564	$1.1K	+$534	48% 5202-5706 (10908)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 90.8¢	$519.64	$523.75	+$4.11	50% 35666-35143 (70809)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 92¢	$348.82	$343.65	+$0.45	53% 951-831 (1782)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 22.8¢	$372.7	$325.33	-$47.36	47% 10621-11901 (22522)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.9¢	$114.75	$228.96	+$114.21
└ Over leg	Overavg 22.8¢	$257.94	$96.37	-$161.57
ZX zxc368	Underavg 99.9¢	$299.91	$274.69	-$25.22	98% 14021-249 (14270)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Overavg 32.6¢	$368.19	$119.67	-$248.53	49% 14132-14699 (28831)
└ Over leg	Overavg 32.6¢	$357.11	$92.97	-$264.14
└ Under leg	Underavg 38¢	$11.09	$26.7	+$15.61
poshposh	Underavg 41¢	$63.4	$100.79	+$37.39	57% 11936-9015 (20951)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Overavg 13.1¢	$124.46	$98.54	-$25.92	52% 881-816 (1697)
└ Over leg	Overavg 13.1¢	$113.88	$73.84	-$40.05
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.2¢	$10.58	$24.71	+$14.13
DI dips.ARB<$100	Underavg 45.2¢	$18.4	$74.34	+$55.94	47% 10167-11493 (21660)
└ Over leg	Overavg 1¢	$6.11	$49.47	+$43.36
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.2¢	$12.29	$24.87	+$12.58
MI MinevaJ	Underavg 58.2¢	$1.8K	$24.84	+$556.63	57% 1090-835 (1925)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$23.04	$16.32	-$6.72	51% 6235-5983 (12218)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 88.5¢	$4.43	$4.58	+$0.15	82% 6799-1470 (8269)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 49.2¢	$26.47	$4.57	-$21.9	56% 987-791 (1778)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Overavg 34.1¢	$10.32	$2.57	-$7.75	34% 1142-2256 (3398)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 6.3¢	$1.82	$2.47	+$0.64	51% 7383-7117 (14500)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$1.32	$1.87	+$0.55	45% 10667-12831 (23498)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$16,815.05

Value

$19.0K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

73%

2837-1073 (3910)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$12,754.51

Value

$10.4K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

56%

7565-5995 (13560)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$9,386.01

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$772.19

Record

54%

1201-1025 (2226)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,547.91

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

53%

59145-51446 (110591)

Both legs:

Over$3,30720.2¢$-1.9K

Under$240.9142.3¢+$279.84

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,352.86

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$527.36

Record

50%

27376-27294 (54670)

Both legs:

Under$853.2765.7¢+$334.47

Over$1,499.5920¢-$861.83

Venusian

Under

Invested

$1,108.35

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$488.55

Record

53%

961-861 (1822)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$1,040.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$141.24

Record

50%

20263-20587 (40850)

SlickRick123

Under

Invested

$564

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$534

Record

48%

5202-5706 (10908)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$519.64

Value

$523.75

PnL

+$4.11

Record

50%

35666-35143 (70809)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$348.82

Value

$343.65

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

951-831 (1782)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$372.7

Value

$325.33

PnL

-$47.36

Record

47%

10621-11901 (22522)

Both legs:

Under$114.7545.9¢+$114.21

Over$257.9422.8¢-$161.57

zxc368

Under

Invested

$299.91

Value

$274.69

PnL

-$25.22

Record

98%

14021-249 (14270)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Over

Invested

$368.19

Value

$119.67

PnL

-$248.53

Record

49%

14132-14699 (28831)

Both legs:

Over$357.1132.6¢-$264.14

Under$11.0938¢+$15.61

poshposh

Under

Invested

$63.4

Value

$100.79

PnL

+$37.39

Record

57%

11936-9015 (20951)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$124.46

Value

$98.54

PnL

-$25.92

Record

52%

881-816 (1697)

Both legs:

Over$113.8813.1¢-$40.05

Under$10.5839.2¢+$14.13

dips.ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$18.4

Value

$74.34

PnL

+$55.94

Record

47%

10167-11493 (21660)

Both legs:

Over$6.111¢+$43.36

Under$12.2945.2¢+$12.58

MinevaJ

Under

Invested

$1,834.76

Value

$24.84

PnL

+$556.63

Record

57%

1090-835 (1925)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.04

Value

$16.32

PnL

-$6.72

Record

51%

6235-5983 (12218)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$4.43

Value

$4.58

PnL

+$0.15

Record

82%

6799-1470 (8269)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.47

Value

$4.57

PnL

-$21.9

Record

56%

987-791 (1778)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.32

Value

$2.57

PnL

-$7.75

Record

34%

1142-2256 (3398)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.82

Value

$2.47

PnL

+$0.64

Record

51%

7383-7117 (14500)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.87

PnL

+$0.55

Record

45%

10667-12831 (23498)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 17 top traders (71%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.