Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

30 of 44 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (68%) · Yes at 74¢ · $219K held · ends Nov 4

Yes74¢No26¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 68%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$219.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 73.5¢

+0% since entry · 30 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 74%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

30 of 44 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes30 traders

Total Value$187.7K

Total Shares259,916

Combined PnL$-1.6K

No14 traders

Total Value$27.0K

Total Shares102,415

Combined PnL-$102.28

Yes — 68%No — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

30 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

376 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 64% · 14

Aligned

sharpYes 83% · 12

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 24

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 74% · 27

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
scottilicious	Yesavg 76.3¢	$72.2K	$68.1K	$-2.6K	82% 945-201 (1146)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 70.8¢	$20.0K	$20.8K	+$774.76	38% 20-32 (52)
gopfan2	Yesavg 73¢	$18.2K	$18.0K	+$125	51% 901-875 (1776)
DonaldinhoTrumpito	Yesavg 70¢	$17.2K	$17.7K	+$615.08	67% 506-251 (757)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Noavg 25.6¢	$15.5K	$16.0K	+$525.85	43% 561-738 (1299)
AF afdafdafdafdafd	Yesavg 74¢	$11.1K	$10.8K	-$225	73% 196-73 (269)
11 11122CTR	Noavg 29¢	$7.1K	$6.3K	-$360.01	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
mountaindewd	Yesavg 67.3¢	$4.6K	$4.9K	+$422.75	54% 344-290 (634)
BA balerinacapuchina	Yesavg 73¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$32.5	72% 176-70 (246)
WA wan123ARB<$100	Noavg 22.1¢	$4.0K	$4.5K	+$534.51	39% 196-304 (500)
└ No leg	Noavg 22.1¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$504.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 72¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$29.94
BiDiFakePolls	Yesavg 71.6¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$114.41	58% 182-132 (314)
FL flawfence	Yesavg 73¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$30.01	46% 271-319 (590)
JO JoeBlack01	Yesavg 78.2¢	$4.7K	$4.3K	-$280	60% 474-313 (787)
GollumGekko	Yesavg 77.7¢	$3.9K	$3.6K	-$240	68% 2074-957 (3031)
RockyZet	Yesavg 73¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$25	66% 257-130 (387)
AllByMyseIf	Yesavg 78¢	$3.9K	$3.6K	-$225	65% 671-357 (1028)
cambridgeisaac	Yesavg 75.3¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$119.41	57% 1113-837 (1950)
Valen9CTR	Noavg 29.6¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$50	60% 406-274 (680)
FB fbet	Yesavg 72¢	$720	$2.2K	-$24.99	57% 21-16 (37)
BR brte	Yesavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$15	— 10-6 (16)
DonationsReceiver	Yesavg 76.7¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$94.99	60% 245-160 (405)
kekkone	Yesavg 70.6¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$83.36	73% 1124-417 (1541)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Yesavg 73¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$12.5	58% 38452-27536 (65988)
IC ic4creamCTR	Noavg 30¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$225.75	59% 2660-1871 (4531)
tetrase	Yesavg 73¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$10.4	61% 839-543 (1382)

scottilicious

Yes

Invested

$72,198.62

Value

$68.1K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$19,978.43

Value

$20.8K

PnL

+$774.76

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

gopfan2

Yes

Invested

$18,249.42

Value

$18.0K

PnL

+$125

Record

51%

901-875 (1776)

DonaldinhoTrumpito

Yes

Invested

$17,222.13

Value

$17.7K

PnL

+$615.08

Record

67%

506-251 (757)

BreakTheBankCTR

Invested

$15,484.02

Value

$16.0K

PnL

+$525.85

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

afdafdafdafdafd

Yes

Invested

$11,100

Value

$10.8K

PnL

-$225

Record

73%

196-73 (269)

11122CTR

Invested

$7,059.31

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$360.01

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

mountaindewd

Yes

Invested

$4,602.12

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$422.75

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

balerinacapuchina

Yes

Invested

$4,745

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$32.5

Record

72%

176-70 (246)

wan123ARB<$100

Invested

$3,970.94

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$534.51

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

Both legs:

No$2,532.7222.1¢+$504.57

Yes$1,437.1672¢+$29.94

BiDiFakePolls

Yes

Invested

$4,319.72

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$114.41

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

flawfence

Yes

Invested

$4,380

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$30.01

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

JoeBlack01

Yes

Invested

$4,690

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$280

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

GollumGekko

Yes

Invested

$3,877.79

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$240

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

RockyZet

Yes

Invested

$3,650

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$25

Record

66%

257-130 (387)

AllByMyseIf

Yes

Invested

$3,899.99

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$225

Record

65%

671-357 (1028)

cambridgeisaac

Yes

Invested

$3,241

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$119.41

Record

57%

1113-837 (1950)

Valen9CTR

Invested

$2,549.99

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$50

Record

60%

406-274 (680)

fbet

Yes

Invested

$720

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$24.99

Record

57%

21-16 (37)

brte

Yes

Invested

$2,160

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$15

Record

—

10-6 (16)

DonationsReceiver

Yes

Invested

$2,299.25

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$94.99

Record

60%

245-160 (405)

kekkone

Yes

Invested

$2,013.06

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$83.36

Record

73%

1124-417 (1541)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Yes

Invested

$1,824.99

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$12.5

Record

58%

38452-27536 (65988)

ic4creamCTR

Invested

$1,935

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$225.75

Record

59%

2660-1871 (4531)

tetrase

Yes

Invested

$1,518.6

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10.4

Record

61%

839-543 (1382)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 74%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

30 of 44 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

30 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

376 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 64% · 14

Aligned

sharpYes 83% · 12

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 24

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 74% · 27

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.3%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.