Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-04?

8 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (35%) · Yes at 81¢ · $68K held · ends Nov 4

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 35%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$68.5K

Combined PnL

-$348.98

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 80.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 23 top traders (35%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$30.6K

Total Shares37,621

Combined PnL-$38.97

No15 traders

Total Value$25.8K

Total Shares134,800

Combined PnL-$310.01

Yes — 35%No — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Yesavg 81¢	$14.9K	$14.8K	-$91.67	50% 6159-6274 (12433)
HA HAN88888	Yesavg 82.7¢	$6.9K	$6.8K	-$41.94	— 10-1 (11)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Noavg 19.5¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	-$8.32	71% 7038-2817 (9855)
└ No leg	Noavg 19.5¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$7.27
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 81¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$15.59
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 19.5¢	$5.8K	$5.6K	-$139.52	53% 16454-14621 (31075)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 19.8¢	$5.6K	$5.4K	-$212.57	53% 1098-984 (2082)
timebrotime	Yesavg 79.8¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$74.08	67% 899-439 (1338)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 19.4¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$6.15	51% 24004-22756 (46760)
└ No leg	Noavg 19.4¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$5.58
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 81¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$11.73
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 19¢	$6.3K	$3.5K	+$282.08	58% 45382-32888 (78270)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 18.4¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$167.92	49% 14281-14984 (29265)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 19.8¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$108.81	52% 1107-1025 (2132)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 20.4¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$194.59	54% 1142-961 (2103)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$10.96	50% 27743-27603 (55346)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 81¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$6.43
└ No leg	Noavg 19.1¢	$817.26	$834.65	+$17.39
GC GC-P	Yesavg 81¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$10	47% 1324-1519 (2843)
NM NM-P	Yesavg 81¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$10	46% 1299-1520 (2819)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 19.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$36.19	50% 35855-35309 (71164)
fraj0la	Yesavg 79¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$6.33	64% 244-139 (383)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 20.7¢	$1.7K	$668.69	-$22.7	48% 57267-60865 (118132)
└ No leg	Noavg 20.7¢	$371.52	$341.71	+$126.73
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 78.1¢	$315.39	$326.98	-$149.42
HI hi774cCTR	Noavg 18¢	$592.04	$624.93	+$32.89	50% 4941-4867 (9808)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 19.3¢	$538.71	$529.85	-$8.85	50% 25333-25054 (50387)
nigiri99CTR	Noavg 22¢	$470.01	$405.65	-$64.36	46% 8334-9729 (18063)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 76¢	$179.65	$191.47	+$5.91	64% 1876-1042 (2918)
DV dv-pmCTR	Noavg 22¢	$149.93	$126.08	-$23.85	49% 3284-3383 (6667)
GH ghorrockCTR	Noavg 19.9¢	$104.85	$88.76	-$3.71	58% 18975-13958 (32933)
IC ic4creamCTR<$100	Noavg 19.8¢	$57.13	$54.91	+$1.45	58% 2694-1988 (4682)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$50.44	$53.06	+$0.98	55% 1847-1540 (3387)

purplegatto

Yes

Invested

$14,850.54

Value

$14.8K

PnL

-$91.67

Record

50%

6159-6274 (12433)

HAN88888

Yes

Invested

$6,941.89

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$41.94

Record

—

10-1 (11)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Invested

$5,766.85

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$8.32

Record

71%

7038-2817 (9855)

Both legs:

No$3,241.2719.5¢+$7.27

Yes$2,525.5881¢-$15.59

CannaeCTR

Invested

$5,771.93

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$139.52

Record

53%

16454-14621 (31075)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$5,596.21

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$212.57

Record

53%

1098-984 (2082)

timebrotime

Yes

Invested

$5,052.5

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$74.08

Record

67%

899-439 (1338)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$3,814.51

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$6.15

Record

51%

24004-22756 (46760)

Both legs:

No$1,913.4419.4¢+$5.58

Yes$1,901.0781¢-$11.73

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$6,275.97

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$282.08

Record

58%

45382-32888 (78270)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$2,790.08

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$167.92

Record

49%

14281-14984 (29265)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$2,795.41

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$108.81

Record

52%

1107-1025 (2132)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$2,803.47

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$194.59

Record

54%

1142-961 (2103)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,858.26

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$10.96

Record

50%

27743-27603 (55346)

Both legs:

Yes$1,04181¢-$6.43

No$817.2619.1¢+$17.39

GC-P

Yes

Invested

$1,310

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10

Record

47%

1324-1519 (2843)

NM-P

Yes

Invested

$1,309.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10

Record

46%

1299-1520 (2819)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$1,183.31

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$36.19

Record

50%

35855-35309 (71164)

fraj0la

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$6.33

Record

64%

244-139 (383)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$1,723.05

Value

$668.69

PnL

-$22.7

Record

48%

57267-60865 (118132)

Both legs:

No$371.5220.7¢+$126.73

Yes$315.3978.1¢-$149.42

hi774cCTR

Invested

$592.04

Value

$624.93

PnL

+$32.89

Record

50%

4941-4867 (9808)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$538.71

Value

$529.85

PnL

-$8.85

Record

50%

25333-25054 (50387)

nigiri99CTR

Invested

$470.01

Value

$405.65

PnL

-$64.36

Record

46%

8334-9729 (18063)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$179.65

Value

$191.47

PnL

+$5.91

Record

64%

1876-1042 (2918)

dv-pmCTR

Invested

$149.93

Value

$126.08

PnL

-$23.85

Record

49%

3284-3383 (6667)

ghorrockCTR

Invested

$104.85

Value

$88.76

PnL

-$3.71

Record

58%

18975-13958 (32933)

ic4creamCTR<$100

Invested

$57.13

Value

$54.91

PnL

+$1.45

Record

58%

2694-1988 (4682)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.44

Value

$53.06

PnL

+$0.98

Record

55%

1847-1540 (3387)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 23 top traders (35%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.