Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 13¢ · $45K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$44.7K

Combined PnL

$-15.3K

Smart Money Entry

18.8¢ → 13¢

-31% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$38.9K

Total Shares299,007

Combined PnL$-15.3K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

2313h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 16.3¢	$20.0K	$16.0K	$-4.0K	43% 561-738 (1299)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Yesavg 21.6¢	$14.1K	$8.5K	$-5.6K	53% 915-808 (1723)
JB JBucketzARB<$100	Noavg 79¢	$6.4K	$5.9K	-$389.72	42% 94-131 (225)
└ No leg	Noavg 79¢	$3.6K	$3.9K	+$292.5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19¢	$2.9K	$2.0K	-$682.22
0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxdCTR	Yesavg 19.8¢	$6.3K	$4.1K	$-2.0K	67% 300-145 (445)
RE rebotsliafCTR	Yesavg 18.3¢	$5.7K	$4.0K	$-1.2K	25% 185-564 (749)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 21.3¢	$3.7K	$2.5K	$-1.2K	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
AA aaabbbCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$1.8K	$1.0K	-$718.01	50% 447-446 (893)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 21.7¢	$1.4K	$843.68	-$563.82	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 16.9¢	$377.69	$657.31	+$230.81	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
studmuffin6969CTR	Yesavg 22¢	$880	$520	-$340	59% 1027-717 (1744)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 15.5¢	$25.24	$296.07	+$223.64	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 19.2¢	$351.23	$253.5	-$97.73	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.9¢	$78	$52	-$26	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
TH thebug44CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.8¢	$61.04	$42.3	-$17.11	33% 42-86 (128)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$20,016.33

Value

$16.0K

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Yes

Invested

$14,111.45

Value

$8.5K

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

JBucketzARB<$100

Invested

$6,435.5

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$389.72

Record

42%

94-131 (225)

Both legs:

No$3,55579¢+$292.5

Yes$2,880.519¢-$682.22

0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxdCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,259.85

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

67%

300-145 (445)

rebotsliafCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,699.61

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,681.45

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

aaabbbCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,767.26

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$718.01

Record

50%

447-446 (893)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,407.5

Value

$843.68

PnL

-$563.82

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$377.69

Value

$657.31

PnL

+$230.81

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

studmuffin6969CTR

Yes

Invested

$880

Value

$520

PnL

-$340

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$25.24

Value

$296.07

PnL

+$223.64

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$351.23

Value

$253.5

PnL

-$97.73

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78

Value

$52

PnL

-$26

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

thebug44CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.04

Value

$42.3

PnL

-$17.11

Record

33%

42-86 (128)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

2313h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.6%

13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$584.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

684.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.