Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.8¢ · $9K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

-$686.7

Smart Money Entry

3¢ → 2.8¢

-7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares343,595

Combined PnL-$686.7

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

26 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
saintaphextwinCTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$4.6K	$3.6K	$-1.1K	39% 397-627 (1024)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$39.04	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxdCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$91.34	67% 300-145 (445)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$764.22	$843.28	+$79.06	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$631.95	$672.92	+$79.5	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
BA bawsCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$487.44	$638.32	+$150.87	48% 30-32 (62)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 3¢	$265.28	$273.74	+$8.47	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
DA dancingmonkey1CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$46	$55	+$9	54% 1253-1088 (2341)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$3.13	$40.23	-$0.25	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$20.8	$22	+$1.2	57% 3069-2356 (5425)

saintaphextwinCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,648.04

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

39%

397-627 (1024)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,172.17

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$39.04

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxdCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,101.32

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$91.34

Record

67%

300-145 (445)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$764.22

Value

$843.28

PnL

+$79.06

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$631.95

Value

$672.92

PnL

+$79.5

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

bawsCTR

Yes

Invested

$487.44

Value

$638.32

PnL

+$150.87

Record

48%

30-32 (62)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$265.28

Value

$273.74

PnL

+$8.47

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

dancingmonkey1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46

Value

$55

PnL

+$9

Record

54%

1253-1088 (2341)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.13

Value

$40.23

PnL

-$0.25

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.8

Value

$22

PnL

+$1.2

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

26 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.9%

2.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2444.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

2544.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.