Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 4.9¢ · $8K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Entry

6.5¢ → 4.9¢

-25% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares151,614

Combined PnL$-2.2K

No3 traders

Total Value$90.91

Total Shares96

Combined PnL+$0.43

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

4872h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

47 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AA aaabbbCTR	Yesavg 7.9¢	$4.1K	$2.5K	$-1.5K	50% 447-446 (893)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 5.9¢	$2.7K	$2.2K	-$467.54	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxdCTR	Yesavg 5.1¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$83.64	67% 300-145 (445)
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 6.2¢	$614.79	$485.88	-$128.9	47% 217-240 (457)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 7.9¢	$164.23	$294.74	+$11.6	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 7.8¢	$3.93	$68.68	+$24.97	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$87.2	$68.6	-$18.6	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
SA salahmh<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$61.78	$62.77	+$0.99	43% 323-428 (751)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$26.12	$25.52	-$0.6	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$24.07	$23.39	-$0.68	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$7.66	$7.99	+$0.33	54% 229-195 (424)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 92.7¢	$4.63	$4.75	+$0.12	73% 41-15 (56)

aaabbbCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,093.75

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

50%

447-446 (893)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,703.51

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$467.54

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxdCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,778.65

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$83.64

Record

67%

300-145 (445)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$614.79

Value

$485.88

PnL

-$128.9

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$164.23

Value

$294.74

PnL

+$11.6

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$3.93

Value

$68.68

PnL

+$24.97

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.2

Value

$68.6

PnL

-$18.6

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

salahmh<$100

Invested

$61.78

Value

$62.77

PnL

+$0.99

Record

43%

323-428 (751)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.12

Value

$25.52

PnL

-$0.6

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$24.07

Value

$23.39

PnL

-$0.68

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.66

Value

$7.99

PnL

+$0.33

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.63

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.12

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

4872h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

47 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.2%

4.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1518.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1618.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.