Consensus PnL -$3.9K · win rate 64% (7–4, n=11) · was PM monthly #978 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-3.9K
Record
7W / 4L
Win Rate
64.0%
of 11 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1000
Source
PM monthly #978
Trades
27
Markets
21
Volume
$191.9K
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 9 on the consensus side (89%)- Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes $36K · now 12¢ · in at 14¢with the consensus (67% of 18)
- Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes $11K · now 11¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (44% of 16)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes $8.1K · now 55¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (71% of 15)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $3.5K · now 74¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (78% of 27)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes $2.4K · now 33¢ · in at 34¢with the consensus (77% of 39)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Yes $1.9K · now 94¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (86% of 14)
- Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?No $1.9K · now 36¢ · in at 30¢with the consensus (71% of 39)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes $1.8K · now 36¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (79% of 29)
Specialties
10 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 64¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0x498d2...'s side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Elections — held side won 60% of 10 at an average 64¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 30%(won 67% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 30%(won 0% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 100% of 4)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.