Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 29 of 38 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?

29 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (76%) · Yes at 33¢ · $71K held · ends Nov 4

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 76%

Total Value

$71.5K

Combined PnL

$6.0K

Smart Money Entry

29.1¢ → 32.5¢

+12% since entry · 29 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 33%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

29 of 38 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)29 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes29 traders

Total Value$59.6K

Total Shares182,044

Combined PnL+$6.1K

No9 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares16,783

Combined PnL-$99.17

Yes — 76%No — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

29 traders

Top 2 hold 31%

Freshness

Late

2240h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

45 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

76% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 31% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 87% · 15

Aligned

sharpYes 89% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 92% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 30

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 34.4¢	$12.0K	$11.3K	-$674.13	35% 35-64 (99)
IC ic4cream	Noavg 65.4¢	$7.6K	$7.8K	+$243.48	59% 2660-1871 (4531)
WongKimArkCTR	Yesavg 18.3¢	$4.1K	$7.4K	+$3.2K	63% 217-127 (344)
Kickstand7CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$6.0K	$6.8K	+$729.1	61% 496-318 (814)
RA RailcoolCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$3.0K	$4.9K	+$1.9K	51% 86-81 (167)
PU purplegattoCTR	Yesavg 27.5¢	$3.6K	$4.3K	+$656.36	50% 5949-6040 (11989)
BiDiFakePollsCTR	Yesavg 36.1¢	$4.7K	$4.2K	-$462.63	58% 182-132 (314)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 22.8¢	$2.3K	$3.3K	+$968.34	40% 704-1061 (1765)
DE defillama7CTR	Yesavg 36¢	$3.6K	$3.2K	-$350	60% 32-21 (53)
mrworldwideCTR	Yesavg 32.5¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$0.58	69% 804-359 (1163)
0X 0x498d2...CTR	Yesavg 33.9¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$102.39	— 7-3 (10)
Seutervoinen	Noavg 79¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$381.66	85% 311-57 (368)
PO poptreeCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$330	70% 390-171 (561)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$180	36% 397-691 (1088)
ImJustKen	Noavg 90.2¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$378.18	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$151.84	$935.87	+$155.98	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
PA pantomimeCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$936.59	$883.07	-$66.9	52% 1287-1198 (2485)
wagwanshawtyCTR	Yesavg 36.5¢	$771.62	$696.63	-$75	— 10-5 (15)
Tenebrus7CTR	Yesavg 32.2¢	$720	$660	-$60	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
CO cowcat	Noavg 87.5¢	$208.91	$631.1	+$422.19	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
mountaindewdCTR	Yesavg 11.5¢	$165.5	$445.05	+$279.55	54% 344-290 (634)
kekkoneCTR	Yesavg 33.9¢	$394.98	$378.67	-$16.31	73% 1124-417 (1541)
nicoco89CTR	Yesavg 8.2¢	$81.75	$309.74	+$227.99	65% 1075-583 (1658)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 33.9¢	$314.92	$301.77	-$13.16	38% 20-32 (52)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$137.87	$286.17	+$148.3	42% 1368-1924 (3292)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$12,010.25

Value

$11.3K

PnL

-$674.13

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

ic4cream

Invested

$7,561.54

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$243.48

Record

59%

2660-1871 (4531)

WongKimArkCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,110.93

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

63%

217-127 (344)

Kickstand7CTR

Yes

Invested

$6,041.14

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$729.1

Record

61%

496-318 (814)

RailcoolCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

51%

86-81 (167)

purplegattoCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,626.32

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$656.36

Record

50%

5949-6040 (11989)

BiDiFakePollsCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,666.23

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$462.63

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,338.38

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$968.34

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

defillama7CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,600

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$350

Record

60%

32-21 (53)

mrworldwideCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,771.79

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$0.58

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

0x498d2...CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,452.72

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$102.39

Record

—

7-3 (10)

Seutervoinen

Invested

$2,622.67

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$381.66

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

poptreeCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,280

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$330

Record

70%

390-171 (561)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,480

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$180

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

ImJustKen

Invested

$1,502.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$378.18

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Yes

Invested

$151.84

Value

$935.87

PnL

+$155.98

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

pantomimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$936.59

Value

$883.07

PnL

-$66.9

Record

52%

1287-1198 (2485)

wagwanshawtyCTR

Yes

Invested

$771.62

Value

$696.63

PnL

-$75

Record

—

10-5 (15)

Tenebrus7CTR

Yes

Invested

$720

Value

$660

PnL

-$60

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

cowcat

Invested

$208.91

Value

$631.1

PnL

+$422.19

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

mountaindewdCTR

Yes

Invested

$165.5

Value

$445.05

PnL

+$279.55

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

kekkoneCTR

Yes

Invested

$394.98

Value

$378.67

PnL

-$16.31

Record

73%

1124-417 (1541)

nicoco89CTR

Yes

Invested

$81.75

Value

$309.74

PnL

+$227.99

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$314.92

Value

$301.77

PnL

-$13.16

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$137.87

Value

$286.17

PnL

+$148.3

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 33%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

29 of 38 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)29 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

29 traders

Top 2 hold 31%

Freshness

Late

2240h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

45 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

76% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 31% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 87% · 15

Aligned

sharpYes 89% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 92% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 30

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.4%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$190.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

290.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.