Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 55¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 30

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.7K

Combined PnL

-$529.41

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 55¢

-3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 55%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$24.0K

Total Shares44,482

Combined PnL-$572.01

No4 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares22,349

Combined PnL+$42.59

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

1461h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
eCash	Yesavg 57.6¢	$10.4K	$10.1K	-$370.52	68% 331-155 (486)
0X 0x498d2...	Yesavg 53.9¢	$8.1K	$8.1K	+$171.69	— 7-3 (10)
PI pilimiliCTR	Noavg 46¢	$6.9K	$6.7K	-$150	62% 151-91 (242)
Tenebrus7	Yesavg 61.7¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$218.65	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
MEPP	Yesavg 54.8¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$7.37	64% 633-352 (985)
paddaaCTR	Noavg 41.3¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$196.48	56% 836-645 (1481)
88 881112CTR	Noavg 30.7¢	$863.12	$1.3K	+$403.35	38% 567-944 (1511)
classifiedARB<$100	Noavg 45¢	$647.96	$643.1	-$4.86	58% 844-614 (1458)
└ No leg	Noavg 45¢	$493.52	$493.11	-$7.64
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.2¢	$167.13	$149.99	+$2.78
cambridgeisaac	Yesavg 72.8¢	$647.49	$486.85	-$160.63	57% 1114-837 (1951)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Yesavg 59.8¢	$290.59	$267.01	-$23.59	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 41.1¢	$196.53	$182.24	-$14.29	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
Porx	Yesavg 48¢	$144	$162	+$21	66% 1482-769 (2251)
SE SeniorLaghetto	Yesavg 54¢	$118.8	$118.8	+$2.2	69% 404-180 (584)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 56.3¢	$54.53	$56.03	+$1.5	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
BR browne<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$10.04	$7.53	-$2.37	71% 173-70 (243)

eCash

Yes

Invested

$10,448.65

Value

$10.1K

PnL

-$370.52

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

0x498d2...

Yes

Invested

$8,078.31

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$171.69

Record

—

7-3 (10)

pilimiliCTR

Invested

$6,900

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$150

Record

62%

151-91 (242)

Tenebrus7

Yes

Invested

$3,014.16

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$218.65

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

MEPP

Yes

Invested

$1,940.98

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$7.37

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

paddaaCTR

Invested

$2,054.65

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$196.48

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

881112CTR

Invested

$863.12

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$403.35

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

classifiedARB<$100

Invested

$647.96

Value

$643.1

PnL

-$4.86

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

Both legs:

No$493.5245¢-$7.64

Yes$167.1360.2¢+$2.78

cambridgeisaac

Yes

Invested

$647.49

Value

$486.85

PnL

-$160.63

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

BikesAreTheBikes

Yes

Invested

$290.59

Value

$267.01

PnL

-$23.59

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$196.53

Value

$182.24

PnL

-$14.29

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

Porx

Yes

Invested

$144

Value

$162

PnL

+$21

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

SeniorLaghetto

Yes

Invested

$118.8

Value

$118.8

PnL

+$2.2

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.53

Value

$56.03

PnL

+$1.5

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

browne<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.04

Value

$7.53

PnL

-$2.37

Record

71%

173-70 (243)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 55%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

1461h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.0%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$78.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

178.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.