Will the Atlanta Falcons make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 71¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 25, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
2 arb excluded
$2.0K
$107.86
61.6¢ → 71¢
+15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
230h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x53eCc53E7 | Noavg 61.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$183.01 | 43% 470-622 (1092) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 35¢ | $307.84 | $230.26 | -$77.58 | 41% 2015-2858 (4873) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 63.7¢ | $224.2 | $220 | -$3 | 15% 459-2699 (3158) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63.7¢ | $140.13 | $163.9 | +$23.7 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37.6¢ | $82.8 | $56.1 | -$26.7 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 66.4¢ | $499.22 | $174.39 | -$17.26 | 35% 18059-33813 (51872) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66.4¢ | $109.07 | $122.39 | -$37.1 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36.4¢ | $74.14 | $52 | +$19.83 | |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 69.5¢ | $77.11 | $80.47 | +$3.36 | 45% 2784-3336 (6120) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $8.21 | $7.12 | -$1.09 | 58% 19424-14279 (33703) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $3.51 | $3.67 | +$0.16 | 48% 7082-7768 (14850) |
Invested
$1,140.69
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$183.01
Record
43%
470-622 (1092)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$307.84
Value
$230.26
PnL
-$77.58
Record
41%
2015-2858 (4873)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$224.2
Value
$220
PnL
-$3
Record
15%
459-2699 (3158)
Both legs:
Invested
$499.22
Value
$174.39
PnL
-$17.26
Record
35%
18059-33813 (51872)
Both legs:
Invested
$77.11
Value
$80.47
PnL
+$3.36
Record
45%
2784-3336 (6120)
Invested
$8.21
Value
$7.12
PnL
-$1.09
Record
58%
19424-14279 (33703)
Invested
$3.51
Value
$3.67
PnL
+$0.16
Record
48%
7082-7768 (14850)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.