Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 18 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

18 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (95%) · Yes at 15¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 95%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$417.82

Smart Money Entry

13.9¢ → 15¢

+8% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 19 top traders (95%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes18 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares29,611

Combined PnL+$419.32

No1 trader

Total Value$433.02

Total Shares468

Combined PnL-$1.5

Yes — 95%No — 5%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

1504h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

13 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

95% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 92% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 94% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR	Yesavg 12.9¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$247.88	43% 470-622 (1092)
saintaphextwinCTR	Yesavg 14.9¢	$909.86	$921.57	+$11.85	38% 400-650 (1050)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 12.1¢	$520.96	$648.43	+$127.52	41% 2002-2837 (4839)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 17.1¢	$596.87	$525.29	-$71.58	45% 2390-2958 (5348)
PU purplegatto	Noavg 84.6¢	$434.52	$433.02	-$1.5	50% 6058-6156 (12214)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 17.7¢	$289.78	$246.8	-$42.98	54% 21895-19024 (40919)
SM smallreceiptCTR	Yes	$136.86	$136.86	+$106.23	49% 8173-8423 (16596)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$49.23	$57.34	+$8.12	41% 1407-2028 (3435)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.2¢	$56.18	$43.94	-$12.24	53% 2336-2055 (4391)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$8.75	$40.78	+$32.03	51% 2116-2029 (4145)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yes	$28.44	$28.44	+$22.35	57% 17871-13366 (31237)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.6¢	$14	$27.75	-$0.5	50% 1695-1680 (3375)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$13.33	$14.33	+$1	56% 838-657 (1495)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$2.68	$13.45	+$10.77	18% 4116-19342 (23458)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.4¢	$11.87	$9.19	-$2.68	52% 5923-5521 (11444)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$1.76	$8.2	+$6.44	74% 12150-4330 (16480)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.8¢	$81.98	$6.92	-$26.92	48% 6872-7509 (14381)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.1¢	$2.75	$3.16	+$0.4	50% 467-467 (934)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$2.08	$2.08	+$1.63	77% 9148-2772 (11920)

0x53eCc53E7CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,473.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$247.88

Record

43%

470-622 (1092)

saintaphextwinCTR

Yes

Invested

$909.86

Value

$921.57

PnL

+$11.85

Record

38%

400-650 (1050)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$520.96

Value

$648.43

PnL

+$127.52

Record

41%

2002-2837 (4839)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$596.87

Value

$525.29

PnL

-$71.58

Record

45%

2390-2958 (5348)

purplegatto

Invested

$434.52

Value

$433.02

PnL

-$1.5

Record

50%

6058-6156 (12214)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$289.78

Value

$246.8

PnL

-$42.98

Record

54%

21895-19024 (40919)

smallreceiptCTR

Yes

Invested

$136.86

Value

$136.86

PnL

+$106.23

Record

49%

8173-8423 (16596)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.23

Value

$57.34

PnL

+$8.12

Record

41%

1407-2028 (3435)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.18

Value

$43.94

PnL

-$12.24

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.75

Value

$40.78

PnL

+$32.03

Record

51%

2116-2029 (4145)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.44

Value

$28.44

PnL

+$22.35

Record

57%

17871-13366 (31237)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14

Value

$27.75

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

1695-1680 (3375)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.33

Value

$14.33

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

838-657 (1495)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.68

Value

$13.45

PnL

+$10.77

Record

18%

4116-19342 (23458)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.87

Value

$9.19

PnL

-$2.68

Record

52%

5923-5521 (11444)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$6.44

Record

74%

12150-4330 (16480)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.98

Value

$6.92

PnL

-$26.92

Record

48%

6872-7509 (14381)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

467-467 (934)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.08

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$1.63

Record

77%

9148-2772 (11920)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 19 top traders (95%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

1504h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

13 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

95% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 92% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 94% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.7%

15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$497.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

598.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.