Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 1 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (11%) · Under at 47¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 1

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 11%

Total Value

$15.2K

Combined PnL

-$146.67

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 9 top traders (11%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares17,461

Combined PnL+$6.11

Over8 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares13,110

Combined PnL-$152.79

Under — 11%Over — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$8.1K	$8.1K	+$6.11	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 53.4¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$7.57	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Overavg 55¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$91	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
CA Cannae	Overavg 53.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$26.41	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Overavg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$30	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
AN AnonymousUsername	Overavg 54¢	$334.26	$321.88	-$9.29	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Overavg 53.3¢	$101.82	$99.32	-$1.54	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 54.3¢	$57.05	$54.6	-$1.92	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 53¢	$20.67	$20.28	-$0.2	49% 13022-13588 (26610)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$8,113.17

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$6.11

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,507.13

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$7.57

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

JAMJAMJAM4

Over

Invested

$2,002

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$91

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

Cannae

Over

Invested

$1,128.96

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$26.41

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Over

Invested

$1,080

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$30

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

AnonymousUsername

Over

Invested

$334.26

Value

$321.88

PnL

-$9.29

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

LeLynxMalynx

Over

Invested

$101.82

Value

$99.32

PnL

-$1.54

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$57.05

Value

$54.6

PnL

-$1.92

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$20.67

Value

$20.28

PnL

-$0.2

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 9 top traders (11%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.