Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 15 of 29 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Elche CF win on 2026-11-01?

15 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (52%) · Yes at 1.5¢ · $98K held · ended Nov 1

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 52%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$98.3K

Combined PnL

$-11.5K

Smart Money Entry

39.4¢ → 1.5¢

-96% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 29 top traders (52%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$27.1K

Total Shares32,197

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Yes15 traders

Total Value$39.3K

Total Shares112,790

Combined PnL$-15.7K

No — 48%Yes — 52%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

81% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 81% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracARB<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$15.9K	$16.4K	+$500	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40¢	$10.0K	$10.5K	+$500
└ No leg	Noavg 59.5¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	+$0
RN1	Noavg 64.7¢	$12.1K	$14.9K	+$2.8K	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Noavg 62.8¢	$14.2K	$14.3K	+$59.34	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.8¢	$9.3K	$10.6K	+$1.3K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.9¢	$4.9K	$3.7K	$-1.2K
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 40¢	$9.7K	$10.2K	+$121.73	49% 258-268 (526)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 59¢	$8.4K	$9.5K	+$1.1K	53% 2255-1981 (4236)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 40.2¢	$21.9K	$8.9K	$-13.1K	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Yesavg 40¢	$5.0K	$5.3K	+$250	54% 733-618 (1351)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 35.5¢	$7.6K	$4.5K	$-3.1K	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 40.2¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$171.91	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
KW kwzoCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$153.85	46% 74-86 (160)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Yesavg 40¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$80	53% 5696-5032 (10728)
sapupuCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$34.88	56% 81-64 (145)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$4.7K	$850.77	$-3.8K	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
└ No leg	Noavg 96¢	$480	$482.5	+$2.5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40¢	$4.2K	$368.27	$-3.8K
0010001000001100	Noavg 94¢	$704.85	$708.6	+$3.75	65% 1371-739 (2110)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 66¢	$477.08	$700.4	+$223.32	61% 13796-8679 (22475)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 70.2¢	$580.52	$645.54	+$65.03	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
HRTradingCTR	Yesavg 38.2¢	$662.33	$479.82	-$182.51	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
BB BBQChickenisthebestttCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$495	$457.5	-$37.5	57% 550-409 (959)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 61¢	$339.26	$322.57	-$16.68	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 40.4¢	$304.96	$315.1	+$10.14	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.4¢	$210.34	$218.82	+$8.48
└ No leg	Noavg 57¢	$94.62	$96.28	+$1.66
noosh3CTR	Yesavg 39¢	$200	$215.38	+$15.38	52% 282-260 (542)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 52.6¢	$108.47	$170.02	+$61.55	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
FO foooool	Noavg 64¢	$102.23	$116.44	+$14.2	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$80	$85	+$5	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 85.5¢	$46.23	$51.71	+$5.48	58% 10691-7671 (18362)

NooseracARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$15,950

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$500

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

Both legs:

Yes$10,00040¢+$500

No$5,95059.5¢+$0

RN1

Invested

$12,089.9

Value

$14.9K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$14,225.22

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$59.34

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

Both legs:

No$9,285.2662.8¢+$1.3K

Yes$4,939.9537.9¢$-1.2K

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$9,738.69

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$121.73

Record

49%

258-268 (526)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$8,443.32

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

2255-1981 (4236)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$21,907.04

Value

$8.9K

PnL

$-13.1K

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

pltrkr111CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$250

Record

54%

733-618 (1351)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,619.4

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,765.77

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$171.91

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

kwzoCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$153.85

Record

46%

74-86 (160)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,600

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$80

Record

53%

5696-5032 (10728)

sapupuCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$34.88

Record

56%

81-64 (145)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,689.85

Value

$850.77

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

Both legs:

No$48096¢+$2.5

Yes$4,209.8540¢$-3.8K

0010001000001100

Invested

$704.85

Value

$708.6

PnL

+$3.75

Record

65%

1371-739 (2110)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$477.08

Value

$700.4

PnL

+$223.32

Record

61%

13796-8679 (22475)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$580.52

Value

$645.54

PnL

+$65.03

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

HRTradingCTR

Yes

Invested

$662.33

Value

$479.82

PnL

-$182.51

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

BBQChickenisthebestttCTR

Yes

Invested

$495

Value

$457.5

PnL

-$37.5

Record

57%

550-409 (959)

SnakeBall

Invested

$339.26

Value

$322.57

PnL

-$16.68

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$304.96

Value

$315.1

PnL

+$10.14

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

Both legs:

Yes$210.3440.4¢+$8.48

No$94.6257¢+$1.66

noosh3CTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$215.38

PnL

+$15.38

Record

52%

282-260 (542)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$108.47

Value

$170.02

PnL

+$61.55

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

foooool

Invested

$102.23

Value

$116.44

PnL

+$14.2

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80

Value

$85

PnL

+$5

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$46.23

Value

$51.71

PnL

+$5.48

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 29 top traders (52%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

81% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 81% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.6%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3714.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

3814.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.