Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Juventus FC win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 44¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 1

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.9K

Combined PnL

$7.77

Smart Money Entry

42.8¢ → 43.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$26.6K

Total Shares61,803

Combined PnL+$152.6

No6 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares25,236

Combined PnL-$144.83

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 42.8¢	$25.8K	$26.0K	+$118.6	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 57¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	-$58.95	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 57.3¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$52.64	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 57¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$20	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
CA Cannae	Noavg 57.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$11.64	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 41¢	$583.74	$612.21	+$35.59	65% 1758-962 (2720)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 57.3¢	$137.27	$136.24	-$1.03	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.3¢	$102.01	$100.57	-$1.44
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43¢	$35.26	$35.67	+$0.41
GH ghorrock	Noavg 57.2¢	$117.48	$113.07	-$1.55	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$14.21	$12.47	-$1.59	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 58¢	$5.05	$5	-$0.05	52% 7503-6793 (14296)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$25,832.1

Value

$26.0K

PnL

+$118.6

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$6,719.73

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$58.95

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$5,109.36

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$52.64

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$2,280

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$20

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

Cannae

Invested

$1,033.15

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$11.64

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$583.74

Value

$612.21

PnL

+$35.59

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$137.27

Value

$136.24

PnL

-$1.03

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Both legs:

No$102.0157.3¢-$1.44

Yes$35.2643¢+$0.41

ghorrock

Invested

$117.48

Value

$113.07

PnL

-$1.55

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.21

Value

$12.47

PnL

-$1.59

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.