Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 1 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Elche CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5

1 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (8%) · Over at 50¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 1

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 8%

Total Value

$15.7K

Combined PnL

-$83.18

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 12 top traders (8%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares16,416

Combined PnL-$219.39

Under11 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares15,027

Combined PnL+$136.21

Over — 8%Under — 92%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marketmeshCTR	Overavg 49.8¢	$8.2K	$8.0K	-$219.39	58% 97-70 (167)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Underavg 50¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$60	47% 2574-2862 (5436)
CA Cannae	Underavg 50.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$29.11	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
AN AnonymousUsername	Underavg 50.6¢	$801.24	$796.31	+$13.62	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 50.5¢	$596.11	$608.03	+$11.92	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
HI hi774c	Underavg 50¢	$550	$561	+$5.5	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 50¢	$373.44	$377.52	+$4.09	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 50.6¢	$72.81	$73.44	+$1.35	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 50.8¢	$71.05	$71.4	-$0.35	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
SL slimjoe<$100	Underavg 50¢	$50	$51	+$1	51% 6525-6188 (12713)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.55	-$0.03	52% 7503-6793 (14296)

marketmeshCTR

Over

Invested

$8,181.4

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$219.39

Record

58%

97-70 (167)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Under

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$60

Record

47%

2574-2862 (5436)

Cannae

Under

Invested

$1,019.54

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$29.11

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Under

Invested

$1,020

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

AnonymousUsername

Under

Invested

$801.24

Value

$796.31

PnL

+$13.62

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$596.11

Value

$608.03

PnL

+$11.92

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$550

Value

$561

PnL

+$5.5

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$373.44

Value

$377.52

PnL

+$4.09

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$72.81

Value

$73.44

PnL

+$1.35

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$71.05

Value

$71.4

PnL

-$0.35

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

slimjoe<$100

Under

Invested

$50

Value

$51

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

6525-6188 (12713)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 12 top traders (8%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.