Trail Blazers vs. Suns

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (55%) · Trail Blazers at 57¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5

Trail Blazers57¢Suns43¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 55%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$6.66

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 57.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers57%

Suns43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,925

Combined PnL+$33.7

Trail Blazers6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,723

Combined PnL-$40.36

Suns — 45%Trail Blazers — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (8 on Suns) disagree here.

whaleSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSuns 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Sunsavg 42¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$12.65	53% 642-561 (1203)
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 58.9¢	$1.0K	$999.4	-$34.05	51% 4531-4396 (8927)
StreamLIVE	Trail Blazersavg 59.2¢	$296.09	$287.5	-$8.59	55% 1258-1018 (2276)
VeryLucky888	Trail Blazersavg 57¢	$259.44	$261.72	+$2.28	58% 44814-32606 (77420)
38 38791873984189CTR	Sunsavg 33¢	$87.86	$102.07	+$21.2	47% 14501-16071 (30572)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100	Sunsavg 42.2¢	$58.7	$58.37	-$0.33	49% 368-384 (752)
GH ghorrock<$100	Trail Blazersavg 63¢	$6.24	$6.32	+$0.08	58% 18891-13903 (32794)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Sunsavg 41¢	$5.66	$5.8	+$0.14	53% 11760-10241 (22001)
PU purplegatto<$100	Trail Blazersavg 58¢	$3.48	$3.45	-$0.03	50% 6081-6190 (12271)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Sunsavg 37¢	$2.96	$3.36	+$0.04	53% 4652-4139 (8791)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283<$100	Trail Blazersavg 58.2¢	$1.75	$1.71	-$0.04	51% 341-330 (671)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Suns

Invested

$1,062.46

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$12.65

Record

53%

642-561 (1203)

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,033.45

Value

$999.4

PnL

-$34.05

Record

51%

4531-4396 (8927)

StreamLIVE

Trail Blazers

Invested

$296.09

Value

$287.5

PnL

-$8.59

Record

55%

1258-1018 (2276)

VeryLucky888

Trail Blazers

Invested

$259.44

Value

$261.72

PnL

+$2.28

Record

58%

44814-32606 (77420)

38791873984189CTR

Suns

Invested

$87.86

Value

$102.07

PnL

+$21.2

Record

47%

14501-16071 (30572)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$58.7

Value

$58.37

PnL

-$0.33

Record

49%

368-384 (752)

ghorrock<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$6.24

Value

$6.32

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

18891-13903 (32794)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$5.66

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

11760-10241 (22001)

purplegatto<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3.48

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

6081-6190 (12271)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$2.96

Value

$3.36

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

4652-4139 (8791)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

341-330 (671)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (8 on Suns) disagree here.

whaleSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSuns 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.