Mavericks vs. Spurs

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (83%) · Spurs at 82¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5

Mavericks19¢Spurs81¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$25.42

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 81.5¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks19%

Spurs82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs10 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,720

Combined PnL-$28.91

Mavericks2 traders

Total Value$42.12

Total Shares182

Combined PnL+$3.48

Spurs — 83%Mavericks — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpurs 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrSpurs 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Spursavg 83.9¢	$722.24	$697.53	-$24.7	50% 20309-20664 (40973)
VeryLucky888	Spursavg 81.9¢	$538.53	$535.96	-$2.56	58% 44814-32606 (77420)
PU purplegattoARB<$100	Spursavg 82.3¢	$416.56	$403.59	-$12.97	50% 6081-6190 (12271)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 82.3¢	$271.33	$267.18	-$4.15
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 19.2¢	$145.23	$136.41	-$8.82
DA darkumbreon88	Spursavg 80.9¢	$389.25	$389.89	+$0.63	64% 1872-1042 (2914)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283	Spursavg 81.8¢	$264.25	$261.68	-$2.58	51% 341-330 (671)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Spursavg 77.1¢	$154.04	$162.44	+$8.4	50% 4937-4856 (9793)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 77.1¢	$77.91	$81.83	+$3.92
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 17¢	$76.13	$80.61	+$4.48
38 38791873984189	Spursavg 82.1¢	$245.79	$132.65	+$1.83	47% 14501-16071 (30572)
HO HomeRunHazard	Spursavg 82.7¢	$108.89	$106.6	-$2.29	54% 17767-14928 (32695)
HE Herdonia<$100	Spursavg 81¢	$37.85	$38.08	+$0.23	51% 3572-3496 (7068)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 17¢	$26.16	$24.03	+$1.47	53% 11760-10241 (22001)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 16¢	$16.08	$18.09	+$2.01	51% 4531-4396 (8927)
0xheavy888<$100	Spursavg 81¢	$16.2	$16.3	+$0.1	55% 7631-6124 (13755)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Spursavg 79.8¢	$15.97	$16.2	+$0.23	54% 501-432 (933)
GH ghorrock<$100	Spursavg 81¢	$51.17	$12.7	+$0.19	58% 18891-13903 (32794)

omnibus-076daa

Spurs

Invested

$722.24

Value

$697.53

PnL

-$24.7

Record

50%

20309-20664 (40973)

VeryLucky888

Spurs

Invested

$538.53

Value

$535.96

PnL

-$2.56

Record

58%

44814-32606 (77420)

purplegattoARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$416.56

Value

$403.59

PnL

-$12.97

Record

50%

6081-6190 (12271)

Both legs:

Spurs$271.3382.3¢-$4.15

Mavericks$145.2319.2¢-$8.82

darkumbreon88

Spurs

Invested

$389.25

Value

$389.89

PnL

+$0.63

Record

64%

1872-1042 (2914)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283

Spurs

Invested

$264.25

Value

$261.68

PnL

-$2.58

Record

51%

341-330 (671)

hi774cARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$154.04

Value

$162.44

PnL

+$8.4

Record

50%

4937-4856 (9793)

Both legs:

Spurs$77.9177.1¢+$3.92

Mavericks$76.1317¢+$4.48

38791873984189

Spurs

Invested

$245.79

Value

$132.65

PnL

+$1.83

Record

47%

14501-16071 (30572)

HomeRunHazard

Spurs

Invested

$108.89

Value

$106.6

PnL

-$2.29

Record

54%

17767-14928 (32695)

Herdonia<$100

Spurs

Invested

$37.85

Value

$38.08

PnL

+$0.23

Record

51%

3572-3496 (7068)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$26.16

Value

$24.03

PnL

+$1.47

Record

53%

11760-10241 (22001)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$16.08

Value

$18.09

PnL

+$2.01

Record

51%

4531-4396 (8927)

0xheavy888<$100

Spurs

Invested

$16.2

Value

$16.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

7631-6124 (13755)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Spurs

Invested

$15.97

Value

$16.2

PnL

+$0.23

Record

54%

501-432 (933)

ghorrock<$100

Spurs

Invested

$51.17

Value

$12.7

PnL

+$0.19

Record

58%

18891-13903 (32794)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpurs 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrSpurs 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.