Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 40 of 62 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

40 of 62 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (65%) · Yes at 44¢ · $568K held · ended Jun 3

Yes44¢No56¢Ended Wed, Jun 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$567.8K

Combined PnL

$-4.6K

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 43.7¢

-5% since entry · 40 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 44%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

40 of 62 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed40 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No22 traders

Total Value$286.6K

Total Shares509,279

Combined PnL+$30.4K

Yes40 traders

Total Value$277.3K

Total Shares630,495

Combined PnL$-35.1K

No — 35%Yes — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

40 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

121 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

65% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 59% · 17

Aligned

sharpYes 93% · 15

Aligned

ctrNo 54% · 26

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 73% · 30

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 40

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA wan123	Noavg 43.5¢	$106.9K	$138.4K	+$31.5K	39% 196-304 (500)
AN anoin123	Noavg 60.4¢	$81.5K	$76.0K	$-5.5K	47% 474-534 (1008)
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 32.2¢	$47.3K	$64.0K	+$16.0K	69% 987-450 (1437)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 58.7¢	$123.4K	$55.1K	$-25.4K	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
scottiliciousCTR	Yesavg 52.9¢	$64.4K	$48.5K	$-15.9K	82% 945-201 (1146)
RE rebotsliaf	Noavg 46.2¢	$19.5K	$23.9K	+$4.5K	25% 185-564 (749)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR	Yesavg 35.9¢	$14.4K	$17.5K	+$3.1K	61% 203-132 (335)
DR dromedaryy	Noavg 46.5¢	$13.4K	$16.2K	+$2.8K	35% 35-64 (99)
0X 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8CTR	Yesavg 43¢	$1.9K	$14.5K	$-2.9K	71% 60-24 (84)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952CTR	Yesavg 57.4¢	$11.5K	$8.7K	$-2.8K	85% 605-108 (713)
Kettle	Noavg 54.3¢	$8.1K	$8.4K	+$360	53% 241-218 (459)
FU FulguratorCTR	Yesavg 55¢	$10.1K	$8.1K	$-2.2K	92% 61-5 (66)
ChungvicularCTR	Yesavg 25.6¢	$4.3K	$6.5K	+$2.2K	46% 49-57 (106)
DOLLAR-PRINTER	Noavg 85.4¢	$9.6K	$6.3K	$-3.3K	56% 3488-2703 (6191)
PL plumbisCTR	Yesavg 48.3¢	$7.5K	$5.7K	$-1.7K	57% 51-39 (90)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchantCTR	Yesavg 48.3¢	$6.3K	$5.3K	-$739.03	55% 78-65 (143)
AF afdafdafdafdafdCTR	Yesavg 58.3¢	$6.5K	$4.9K	$-1.7K	73% 196-73 (269)
Fuentes31CTR	Yesavg 38.2¢	$3.9K	$4.4K	+$488.81	53% 663-586 (1249)
Valen9CTR	Yesavg 57.4¢	$5.7K	$4.4K	$-1.4K	60% 406-274 (680)
zxdfbdfgngcxvCTR	Yesavg 47¢	$4.9K	$4.2K	-$706.85	82% 1758-394 (2152)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Noavg 58.1¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$126.5	36% 190-333 (523)
AL Albert 1953CTR	Yesavg 52.6¢	$4.8K	$4.0K	-$874.63	50% 1093-1094 (2187)
JO JoeBlack01CTR	Yesavg 58.6¢	$5.3K	$3.9K	$-1.4K	60% 474-313 (787)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Yesavg 43.4¢	$3.6K	$3.9K	+$282.78	62% 4201-2575 (6776)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43.4¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$14.05
└ No leg	Noavg 48.4¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$296.83
TheGreekTraderPM	Noavg 45.2¢	$2.3K	$2.8K	+$587.5	60% 430-285 (715)

wan123

Invested

$106,926.58

Value

$138.4K

PnL

+$31.5K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

anoin123

Invested

$81,536.22

Value

$76.0K

PnL

$-5.5K

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$47,332.12

Value

$64.0K

PnL

+$16.0K

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$123,418.67

Value

$55.1K

PnL

$-25.4K

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

scottiliciousCTR

Yes

Invested

$64,383.68

Value

$48.5K

PnL

$-15.9K

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

rebotsliaf

Invested

$19,458.56

Value

$23.9K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR

Yes

Invested

$14,358.28

Value

$17.5K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

dromedaryy

Invested

$13,357.36

Value

$16.2K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,857.65

Value

$14.5K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

71%

60-24 (84)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952CTR

Yes

Invested

$11,491.29

Value

$8.7K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

Kettle

Invested

$8,145

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$360

Record

53%

241-218 (459)

FulguratorCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,122.41

Value

$8.1K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

92%

61-5 (66)

ChungvicularCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,324.73

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

DOLLAR-PRINTER

Invested

$9,609.73

Value

$6.3K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

56%

3488-2703 (6191)

plumbisCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,453.73

Value

$5.7K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

SquirrelTheMerchantCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,337.25

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$739.03

Record

55%

78-65 (143)

afdafdafdafdafdCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,500.45

Value

$4.9K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

73%

196-73 (269)

Fuentes31CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,859.74

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$488.81

Record

53%

663-586 (1249)

Valen9CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,740

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

60%

406-274 (680)

zxdfbdfgngcxvCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,877.2

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$706.85

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Invested

$4,199.82

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$126.5

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

Albert 1953CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,797.4

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$874.63

Record

50%

1093-1094 (2187)

JoeBlack01CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,254.02

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,625.62

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$282.78

Record

62%

4201-2575 (6776)

Both legs:

Yes$1,953.6843.4¢-$14.05

No$1,671.9448.4¢+$296.83

TheGreekTraderPM

Invested

$2,260

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$587.5

Record

60%

430-285 (715)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 44%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

40 of 62 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed40 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

40 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

121 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

65% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 59% · 17

Aligned

sharpYes 93% · 15

Aligned

ctrNo 54% · 26

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 73% · 30

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 40

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.