Consensus PnL $69K · win rate 65% (135–73, n=208) · hand-picked wallet · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$69.0K
Record
135W / 73L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 208 settled
Batting Avg
69.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#941
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
5,407
Markets
290
Volume
$2.0M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $14K · now 97¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $5.9K · now 84¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No $5.3K · now 98¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (95% of 21)
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No $52 · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
Specialties
244 settled consensus markets · held side won 72% at an average entry of 66¢- Geopolitics
+11 pts
side won 96% of 57 · avg entry 86¢
ROI +4%
- Culture
+9 pts
side won 16% of 19 · avg entry 7¢
ROI +5%
- Elections
+2 pts
side won 47% of 59 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Tech — held side won 45% of 11 at an average 68¢ entry (−23 pts against the price), ROI −19%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 23%(won 4% of 57)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 55% of 11)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 77% of 22)
- 70¢ and up: 63%(won 97% of 154)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.