Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

20 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (95%) · No at 98¢ · $102K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 95%

Total Value

$102.0K

Combined PnL

$8.0K

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 97.8¢

+9% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 21 top traders (95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No20 traders

Total Value$102.0K

Total Shares104,288

Combined PnL+$8.0K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$15.8

Total Shares718

Combined PnL-$30.5

No — 95%Yes — 5%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

95% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 12

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 17

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222	Noavg 90¢	$26.1K	$28.6K	+$2.4K	88% 212-28 (240)
0X 0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b	Noavg 82¢	$11.9K	$14.2K	+$2.3K	97% 140-4 (144)
4751346	Noavg 89.6¢	$11.4K	$12.3K	+$866.43	72% 1257-483 (1740)
KE keribit	Noavg 96¢	$12.2K	$12.2K	+$59.85	77% 343-103 (446)
Bromley86	Noavg 94.2¢	$9.1K	$9.2K	+$152.01	90% 728-80 (808)
0X 0x79a009b7C0336273Bf3Bc7E1D940aD3e2152B9	Noavg 84.3¢	$4.5K	$5.3K	+$734.61	70% 160-67 (227)
Slowroasted	Noavg 94.7¢	$4.4K	$4.6K	+$134.98	88% 1990-279 (2269)
Marco-Rubio	Noavg 90.5¢	$150.75	$4.4K	+$352.05	53% 489-440 (929)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 84¢	$2.8K	$3.3K	+$463.88	88% 2229-292 (2521)
AV Avamax	Noavg 96.7¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$34.06	81% 421-101 (522)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 91.4¢	$1.1K	$2.4K	+$210.4	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
KR Krass	Noavg 86.7¢	$815.36	$917.42	+$102.06	74% 452-155 (607)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 83.9¢	$452.19	$527.1	+$74.92	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
esports095	Noavg 97¢	$399.67	$403.14	+$3.46	58% 651-467 (1118)
MEPP	Noavg 83.2¢	$213.13	$250.52	+$37.4	64% 633-352 (985)
AV aviato	Noavg 85.1¢	$209.56	$224.48	+$14.92	84% 2440-449 (2889)
PU PutsOnPeace	Noavg 83.7¢	$167.42	$195.71	+$28.29	66% 955-482 (1437)
siick<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$50.93	$53.25	+$2.32	57% 768-580 (1348)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$46.3	$15.8	-$30.5	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
IN insidero<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$1.88	$1.97	+$0.1	76% 291-93 (384)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$1	$1	+$0	69% 156-69 (225)

forinnerpsandr1x11222

Invested

$26,129.99

Value

$28.6K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

88%

212-28 (240)

0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b

Invested

$11,890

Value

$14.2K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

97%

140-4 (144)

4751346

Invested

$11,427.29

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$866.43

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

keribit

Invested

$12,165

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$59.85

Record

77%

343-103 (446)

Bromley86

Invested

$9,079.18

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$152.01

Record

90%

728-80 (808)

0x79a009b7C0336273Bf3Bc7E1D940aD3e2152B9

Invested

$4,546.43

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$734.61

Record

70%

160-67 (227)

Slowroasted

Invested

$4,428.47

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$134.98

Record

88%

1990-279 (2269)

Marco-Rubio

Invested

$150.75

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$352.05

Record

53%

489-440 (929)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$2,823.61

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$463.88

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

Avamax

Invested

$2,994.09

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$34.06

Record

81%

421-101 (522)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,096.48

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$210.4

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Krass

Invested

$815.36

Value

$917.42

PnL

+$102.06

Record

74%

452-155 (607)

cocococococo

Invested

$452.19

Value

$527.1

PnL

+$74.92

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

esports095

Invested

$399.67

Value

$403.14

PnL

+$3.46

Record

58%

651-467 (1118)

MEPP

Invested

$213.13

Value

$250.52

PnL

+$37.4

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

aviato

Invested

$209.56

Value

$224.48

PnL

+$14.92

Record

84%

2440-449 (2889)

PutsOnPeace

Invested

$167.42

Value

$195.71

PnL

+$28.29

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

siick<$100

Invested

$50.93

Value

$53.25

PnL

+$2.32

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.3

Value

$15.8

PnL

-$30.5

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

insidero<$100

Invested

$1.88

Value

$1.97

PnL

+$0.1

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

20 of 21 top traders (95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

95% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 12

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 17

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.