Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 99¢ · $116K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$116.4K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

97.6¢ → 98.9¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$116.4K

Total Shares117,652

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$24.65

Total Shares2,144

Combined PnL-$33.27

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

208 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZU zubizubizu	No	$82.2K	$82.2K	+$2.2K	86% 18-3 (21)
03 033033033	Noavg 98.5¢	$20.3K	$20.4K	+$72.19	98% 529-9 (538)
Roflan-ludoman	Noavg 96.2¢	$10.1K	$9.9K	+$260.01	62% 649-396 (1045)
JA JanAMEX	Noavg 96¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$57	88% 321-44 (365)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 98.7¢	$725.92	$727.72	+$1.79	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
PaddyAlpha	Noavg 97.2¢	$719.07	$720.81	+$1.75	59% 986-684 (1670)
VO Volodyabandit	Noavg 98.8¢	$250	$250.25	+$0	76% 275-86 (361)
timebrotime	Noavg 95.8¢	$100	$103.24	+$3.18	67% 893-435 (1328)
0X 0x79a009b7C0336273Bf3Bc7E1D940aD3e2152B9<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$50.42	$51.7	+$1.28	70% 160-67 (227)
solwizzo-onXCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$56	$23	-$32	67% 347-174 (521)
tetrase<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$10.01	$10.02	+$0.02	61% 839-544 (1383)
Parz1vaI<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$4.79	$4.95	+$0.16	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$2.22	$1.28	-$0.94	42% 2258-3075 (5333)
RE rebotsliafCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.71	$0.38	-$0.33	25% 185-564 (749)

zubizubizu

Invested

$82,231.97

Value

$82.2K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

86%

18-3 (21)

033033033

Invested

$20,313.29

Value

$20.4K

PnL

+$72.19

Record

98%

529-9 (538)

Roflan-ludoman

Invested

$10,096.99

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$260.01

Record

62%

649-396 (1045)

JanAMEX

Invested

$1,920

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$57

Record

88%

321-44 (365)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$725.92

Value

$727.72

PnL

+$1.79

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

PaddyAlpha

Invested

$719.07

Value

$720.81

PnL

+$1.75

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Volodyabandit

Invested

$250

Value

$250.25

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

275-86 (361)

timebrotime

Invested

$100

Value

$103.24

PnL

+$3.18

Record

67%

893-435 (1328)

0x79a009b7C0336273Bf3Bc7E1D940aD3e2152B9<$100

Invested

$50.42

Value

$51.7

PnL

+$1.28

Record

70%

160-67 (227)

solwizzo-onXCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56

Value

$23

PnL

-$32

Record

67%

347-174 (521)

tetrase<$100

Invested

$10.01

Value

$10.02

PnL

+$0.02

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

Parz1vaI<$100

Invested

$4.79

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.16

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.22

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$0.94

Record

42%

2258-3075 (5333)

rebotsliafCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.71

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$0.33

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

208 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.