Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

21 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold No (66%) · No at 75¢ · $52K held · ended Sep 14

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Mon, Sep 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 66%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$51.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 74.5¢

-10% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 75%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 32 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No21 traders

Total Value$36.2K

Total Shares48,630

Combined PnL$-3.9K

Yes11 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares33,443

Combined PnL+$2.7K

No — 66%Yes — 34%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

66% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 64% · 11

Aligned

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 69% · 16

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Noavg 83.7¢	$11.3K	$10.1K	$-1.2K	47% 474-534 (1008)
JU justtryingtosurviveARB<$100	Yesavg 18.3¢	$6.3K	$7.0K	+$656.04	— 4-0 (4)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.3¢	$3.8K	$5.3K	+$1.0K
└ No leg	Noavg 91¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$380.68
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758	Noavg 82.8¢	$5.0K	$4.5K	-$489.95	47% 83-94 (177)
Valen9	Noavg 77¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$141	60% 406-274 (680)
SI Siddhartha1	Noavg 80.7¢	$4.4K	$4.1K	-$331.06	51% 59-57 (116)
ET ethBELIVER	Noavg 82.9¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$439.16	39% 24-37 (61)
Seutervoinen	Noavg 94.3¢	$3.1K	$2.5K	-$681.6	85% 311-57 (368)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Yesavg 31.1¢	$3.0K	$2.4K	-$533.7	57% 1092-820 (1912)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 13.1¢	$175.12	$2.2K	+$1.8K	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
eCash	Noavg 82.7¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$234.77	68% 330-155 (485)
The-Joker	Noavg 78¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$96.54	68% 1507-701 (2208)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 14.2¢	$990.28	$1.6K	+$590.41	68% 2074-957 (3031)
MisTKyCTR	Yesavg 17.6¢	$691.7	$994.83	+$312.94	71% 568-236 (804)
BiDiFakePolls	Noavg 80¢	$800	$746.5	-$53.5	58% 182-132 (314)
debased	Noavg 83.9¢	$551.09	$562.54	+$11.45	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Noavg 93.8¢	$624.92	$496.99	-$127.93	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$449.2	$437.97	-$11.23	35% 35-64 (99)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 86.5¢	$779.52	$416.63	-$84.32	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
DOLLAR-PRINTERCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$93	$380.25	+$287.25	56% 3488-2703 (6191)
PMTraderAdam	Noavg 73¢	$365	$372	+$7	77% 830-249 (1079)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 16.5¢	$215.41	$318.04	+$102.63	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
archaic	Noavg 92¢	$204.24	$165.17	-$38.52	85% 1906-339 (2245)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 16.9¢	$75.85	$114.07	+$38.22	38% 20-32 (52)
TT tttt123<$100	Noavg 72¢	$72	$74.4	+$2.65	72% 1535-585 (2120)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.2¢	$5.86	$57.11	+$51.25	56% 14224-11030 (25254)

anoin123

Invested

$11,302.96

Value

$10.1K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

justtryingtosurviveARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$6,326.29

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$656.04

Record

—

4-0 (4)

Both legs:

Yes$3,806.4818.3¢+$1.0K

No$2,086.8491¢-$380.68

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758

Invested

$4,959.59

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$489.95

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

Valen9

Invested

$4,619.97

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$141

Record

60%

406-274 (680)

Siddhartha1

Invested

$4,415.94

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$331.06

Record

51%

59-57 (116)

ethBELIVER

Invested

$4,006.01

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$439.16

Record

39%

24-37 (61)

Seutervoinen

Invested

$3,143.02

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$681.6

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,976.64

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$533.7

Record

57%

1092-820 (1912)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$175.12

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

eCash

Invested

$2,340.68

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$234.77

Record

68%

330-155 (485)

The-Joker

Invested

$2,119.93

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$96.54

Record

68%

1507-701 (2208)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$990.28

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$590.41

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

MisTKyCTR

Yes

Invested

$691.7

Value

$994.83

PnL

+$312.94

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

BiDiFakePolls

Invested

$800

Value

$746.5

PnL

-$53.5

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

debased

Invested

$551.09

Value

$562.54

PnL

+$11.45

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Invested

$624.92

Value

$496.99

PnL

-$127.93

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$449.2

Value

$437.97

PnL

-$11.23

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$779.52

Value

$416.63

PnL

-$84.32

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

DOLLAR-PRINTERCTR

Yes

Invested

$93

Value

$380.25

PnL

+$287.25

Record

56%

3488-2703 (6191)

PMTraderAdam

Invested

$365

Value

$372

PnL

+$7

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$215.41

Value

$318.04

PnL

+$102.63

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

archaic

Invested

$204.24

Value

$165.17

PnL

-$38.52

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$75.85

Value

$114.07

PnL

+$38.22

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

tttt123<$100

Invested

$72

Value

$74.4

PnL

+$2.65

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.86

Value

$57.11

PnL

+$51.25

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 75%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 32 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

66% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 64% · 11

Aligned

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 69% · 16

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.2%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.