Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 35 of 44 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

35 of 44 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 11¢ · $37K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.2K

Combined PnL

$-29.2K

Smart Money Entry

35.5¢ → 10.5¢

-70% since entry · 34 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

35 of 44 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed35 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$21.9K

Total Shares24,558

Combined PnL+$7.4K

Yes35 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares150,215

Combined PnL$-36.5K

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

35 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

286 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 81% · 16

Aligned

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 79% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 30

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 28

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tetrase	Noavg 49.3¢	$5.6K	$10.2K	+$4.6K	61% 839-544 (1383)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758	Noavg 68.2¢	$3.7K	$4.8K	+$1.2K	47% 85-95 (180)
HE HerrieDavis	Noavg 71.8¢	$2.9K	$3.8K	+$832.65	36% 2086-3721 (5807)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 32.8¢	$11.6K	$3.7K	$-7.9K	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Noavg 65.6¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$595.62	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
MO Monopoly_MoneyCTR	Yesavg 44.4¢	$456.19	$1.7K	$-6.0K	63% 159-95 (254)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 20.5¢	$2.9K	$1.5K	$-1.4K	38% 567-944 (1511)
tomatosauce3CTR	Yesavg 46.9¢	$6.2K	$1.3K	$-4.9K	— 6-1 (7)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 28.2¢	$2.8K	$998.46	$-1.8K	56% 836-645 (1481)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 34.9¢	$3.1K	$922.83	$-2.1K	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 44.7¢	$3.0K	$756.27	$-2.2K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
CarCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$2.4K	$728.83	$-1.7K	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 14.7¢	$458.49	$642.72	-$364.5	38% 20-32 (52)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 69.4¢	$390.34	$516.69	+$126.35	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
eightpenguinsCTR	Yesavg 46¢	$511.06	$323.25	$-1.4K	52% 304-281 (585)
SE segment3CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$719.99	$300	-$405	57% 12-9 (21)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 64.1¢	$514.49	$277.1	$-1.5K	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
PU PutsOnPeace	Noavg 74.9¢	$236.1	$267	+$30.9	66% 955-482 (1437)
studmuffin6969CTR	Yesavg 56.4¢	$1.2K	$234.04	-$992.69	59% 1027-717 (1744)
mountaindewdCTR	Yesavg 64¢	$1.4K	$222.2	$-1.2K	54% 344-290 (634)
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 23¢	$505.68	$219.86	-$274.82	47% 217-240 (457)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Yesavg 30.3¢	$304.04	$176.45	-$127.59	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ No leg	Noavg 74¢	$77.7	$93.45	+$16.28
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.3¢	$251.76	$83	-$143.87
Tenebrus7CTR	Yesavg 39.4¢	$564.37	$167.65	-$396.72	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 23¢	$330.88	$147.06	-$183.82	67% 751-378 (1129)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$19.89	$143.6	+$150.78	64% 154-88 (242)

tetrase

Invested

$5,591.71

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758

Invested

$3,654.37

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

HerrieDavis

Invested

$2,921.25

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$832.65

Record

36%

2086-3721 (5807)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$11,596.02

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-7.9K

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

BikesAreTheBikes

Invested

$1,633.07

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$595.62

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

Monopoly_MoneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$456.19

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-6.0K

Record

63%

159-95 (254)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,940.43

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

tomatosauce3CTR

Yes

Invested

$6,247.25

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

—

6-1 (7)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,813.35

Value

$998.46

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,063.97

Value

$922.83

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,988.8

Value

$756.27

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,425.7

Value

$728.83

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$458.49

Value

$642.72

PnL

-$364.5

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$390.34

Value

$516.69

PnL

+$126.35

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

eightpenguinsCTR

Yes

Invested

$511.06

Value

$323.25

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

52%

304-281 (585)

segment3CTR

Yes

Invested

$719.99

Value

$300

PnL

-$405

Record

57%

12-9 (21)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$514.49

Value

$277.1

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

PutsOnPeace

Invested

$236.1

Value

$267

PnL

+$30.9

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

studmuffin6969CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,226.73

Value

$234.04

PnL

-$992.69

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

mountaindewdCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,422.08

Value

$222.2

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$505.68

Value

$219.86

PnL

-$274.82

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$304.04

Value

$176.45

PnL

-$127.59

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

No$77.774¢+$16.28

Yes$251.7630.3¢-$143.87

Tenebrus7CTR

Yes

Invested

$564.37

Value

$167.65

PnL

-$396.72

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$330.88

Value

$147.06

PnL

-$183.82

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

$19.89

Value

$143.6

PnL

+$150.78

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

35 of 44 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed35 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

35 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

286 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 81% · 16

Aligned

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 79% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 30

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 28

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.0%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$732.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

832.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.