Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 70¢ · $23K held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$22.8K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

75.7¢ → 69.5¢

-8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$15.8K

Total Shares22,709

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares23,160

Combined PnL+$2.7K

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

705h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Tenebrus7	Noavg 78.4¢	$10.9K	$9.3K	$-1.2K	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 15.5¢	$2.3K	$4.5K	+$2.2K	47% 85-95 (180)
Car	Noavg 71.8¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$77.81	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
yen4u	Noavg 71¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$48.26	86% 809-136 (945)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$578.92	$1.0K	+$459	36% 2086-3721 (5807)
DebosnysCTR	Yesavg 45.5¢	$1.2K	$797.57	-$392.23	89% 1868-225 (2093)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$298	$648.67	+$350.67	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 79.1¢	$183.36	$162.82	-$20.53	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$24	$91.5	+$67.5	18% 3833-17376 (21209)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$10,857.91

Value

$9.3K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,274.9

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

Car

Invested

$4,139.01

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$77.81

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

yen4u

Invested

$2,284.55

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$48.26

Record

86%

809-136 (945)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$578.92

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$459

Record

36%

2086-3721 (5807)

DebosnysCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,189.81

Value

$797.57

PnL

-$392.23

Record

89%

1868-225 (2093)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Yes

Invested

$298

Value

$648.67

PnL

+$350.67

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

ghorrock

Invested

$183.36

Value

$162.82

PnL

-$20.53

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$91.5

PnL

+$67.5

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

705h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.