Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Casper Ruud, while the market favors Rafael Jodar (62%). 17 of 37 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Rafael Jodar

17 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold Casper Ruud (46%) · Casper Ruud at 38¢ · $223K held · ends Nov 10

Casper Ruud38¢Rafael Jodar62¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Casper Ruud

Consensus Traders

Casper Ruud 46%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$223.1K

Combined PnL

$-4.2K

Smart Money Entry

72.5¢ → 38¢

-48% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralCasper Ruud at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Casper Ruud

17 of 37 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Rafael Jodar 62%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Casper Ruud38%

Rafael Jodar62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rafael Jodar20 traders

Total Value$91.8K

Total Shares147,108

Combined PnL+$43.1K

Casper Ruud17 traders

Total Value$60.0K

Total Shares144,066

Combined PnL$-47.3K

Rafael Jodar — 54%Casper Ruud — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

37% of non-arb traders are on Casper Ruud. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCasper Ruud 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpCasper Ruud 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrRafael Jodar 73% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedRafael Jodar 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Rafael Jodar 61% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Rafael Jodaravg 7.3¢	$3.4K	$29.0K	+$25.6K	46% 1309-1528 (2837)
RN1ARB<$100	Casper Ruudavg 51.7¢	$27.1K	$25.6K	$-1.5K	53% 59089-51396 (110485)
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 51.7¢	$21.1K	$15.5K	$-5.6K
└ Rafael Jodar leg	Rafael Jodaravg 36.8¢	$6.0K	$10.1K	+$4.1K
99 999585CTR	Casper Ruudavg 93.1¢	$60.5K	$24.7K	$-35.8K	92% 58-5 (63)
65 6512395314597884	Rafael Jodaravg 41¢	$12.5K	$15.5K	+$3.9K	51% 4510-4384 (8894)
0X 0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3	Rafael Jodaravg 31.7¢	$5.2K	$10.1K	+$4.9K	24% 103-324 (427)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Rafael Jodaravg 32¢	$5.3K	$9.8K	+$4.5K	46% 404-475 (879)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Casper Ruudavg 60.4¢	$7.9K	$9.7K	+$1.8K	52% 847-783 (1630)
└ Rafael Jodar leg	Rafael Jodaravg 15.2¢	$1.4K	$5.6K	+$4.2K
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 60.4¢	$6.5K	$4.1K	$-2.4K
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 40.3¢	$8.4K	$9.4K	+$1.1K	52% 6722-6264 (12986)
└ Rafael Jodar leg	Rafael Jodaravg 40.3¢	$4.6K	$7.1K	+$2.5K
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 61.2¢	$3.8K	$2.3K	$-1.4K
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Rafael Jodaravg 58.5¢	$8.9K	$9.4K	+$536.94	39% 521-832 (1353)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Casper Ruudavg 56.6¢	$9.1K	$9.0K	-$103.69	52% 14128-12900 (27028)
└ Rafael Jodar leg	Rafael Jodaravg 44.6¢	$4.0K	$5.6K	+$1.6K
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 56.6¢	$5.1K	$3.4K	$-1.7K
LI LightParadoxCTR	Casper Ruudavg 59.9¢	$12.9K	$8.2K	$-4.7K	53% 921-802 (1723)
KC Kch-TempCTR	Casper Ruudavg 37.7¢	$8.2K	$8.0K	-$145.43	51% 230-225 (455)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Casper Ruudavg 51.1¢	$5.8K	$7.1K	+$1.3K	43% 10231-13295 (23526)
└ Rafael Jodar leg	Rafael Jodaravg 33.4¢	$2.5K	$4.6K	+$2.1K
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 51.1¢	$3.3K	$2.5K	-$845.17
DM dmoralezARB<$100	Casper Ruudavg 68.8¢	$33.0K	$6.7K	$-6.6K	63% 204-118 (322)
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 68.8¢	$8.8K	$4.8K	$-5.5K
└ Rafael Jodar leg	Rafael Jodaravg 52.4¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	$-1.1K
FL FlaznorpCTR	Casper Ruudavg 58.8¢	$4.6K	$5.9K	+$1.3K	51% 23440-22208 (45648)
NU nuuki	Rafael Jodaravg 44.2¢	$3.5K	$4.9K	+$1.4K	44% 136-175 (311)
VeryLucky888	Rafael Jodaravg 62.6¢	$6.0K	$4.6K	-$46.71	58% 44668-32527 (77195)
VE VenusianCTR	Casper Ruudavg 75.9¢	$8.7K	$4.4K	$-4.4K	53% 928-828 (1756)
LI LimousinCTR	Casper Ruudavg 62.9¢	$6.2K	$3.8K	$-2.3K	56% 959-749 (1708)
38 38791873984189CTR	Casper Ruudavg 66.1¢	$4.4K	$2.7K	-$477.78	48% 14412-15920 (30332)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Casper Ruudavg 52.7¢	$3.1K	$2.6K	-$556.11	54% 6063-5072 (11135)
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 52.7¢	$2.6K	$1.9K	-$731.87
└ Rafael Jodar leg	Rafael Jodaravg 45.6¢	$490.2	$665.96	+$175.76
OM omnibus-076daa	Rafael Jodaravg 52.2¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$323.08	50% 20222-20549 (40771)
SE sentrio	Rafael Jodaravg 26.8¢	$809.44	$1.7K	+$925.75	50% 25264-24973 (50237)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Casper Ruudavg 56¢	$4.2K	$1.2K	+$165.51	52% 705-645 (1350)
└ Rafael Jodar leg	Rafael Jodaravg 39.7¢	$472.85	$738.35	+$303.25
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 56¢	$683.72	$464.07	-$137.74
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Rafael Jodaravg 57¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$93.6	45% 412-501 (913)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$3,428.97

Value

$29.0K

PnL

+$25.6K

Record

46%

1309-1528 (2837)

RN1ARB<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$27,109.29

Value

$25.6K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

53%

59089-51396 (110485)

Both legs:

Casper Ruud$21,094.2851.7¢$-5.6K

Rafael Jodar$6,015.0136.8¢+$4.1K

999585CTR

Casper Ruud

Invested

$60,499.99

Value

$24.7K

PnL

$-35.8K

Record

92%

58-5 (63)

6512395314597884

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$12,458.55

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

51%

4510-4384 (8894)

0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$5,173.37

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

24%

103-324 (427)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$5,272.21

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

46%

404-475 (879)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$7,913.66

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

52%

847-783 (1630)

Both legs:

Rafael Jodar$1,370.3615.2¢+$4.2K

Casper Ruud$6,543.360.4¢$-2.4K

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$8,368.79

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

52%

6722-6264 (12986)

Both legs:

Rafael Jodar$4,602.9240.3¢+$2.5K

Casper Ruud$3,765.8761.2¢$-1.4K

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$8,871.45

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$536.94

Record

39%

521-832 (1353)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$9,077.25

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$103.69

Record

52%

14128-12900 (27028)

Both legs:

Rafael Jodar$4,003.9944.6¢+$1.6K

Casper Ruud$5,073.2756.6¢$-1.7K

LightParadoxCTR

Casper Ruud

Invested

$12,912.14

Value

$8.2K

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

53%

921-802 (1723)

Kch-TempCTR

Casper Ruud

Invested

$8,181.7

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$145.43

Record

51%

230-225 (455)

NotJumpARB<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$5,789.89

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

43%

10231-13295 (23526)

Both legs:

Rafael Jodar$2,488.8833.4¢+$2.1K

Casper Ruud$3,301.0151.1¢-$845.17

dmoralezARB<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$33,045.01

Value

$6.7K

PnL

$-6.6K

Record

63%

204-118 (322)

Both legs:

Casper Ruud$8,766.9868.8¢$-5.5K

Rafael Jodar$1,560.9452.4¢$-1.1K

FlaznorpCTR

Casper Ruud

Invested

$4,610.4

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

51%

23440-22208 (45648)

nuuki

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$3,474.9

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

44%

136-175 (311)

VeryLucky888

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$6,013.88

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$46.71

Record

58%

44668-32527 (77195)

VenusianCTR

Casper Ruud

Invested

$8,742.43

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

53%

928-828 (1756)

LimousinCTR

Casper Ruud

Invested

$6,154.82

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

56%

959-749 (1708)

38791873984189CTR

Casper Ruud

Invested

$4,411.02

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$477.78

Record

48%

14412-15920 (30332)

EulhunterARB<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$3,115.47

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$556.11

Record

54%

6063-5072 (11135)

Both legs:

Casper Ruud$2,625.2652.7¢-$731.87

Rafael Jodar$490.245.6¢+$175.76

omnibus-076daa

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$2,008.32

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$323.08

Record

50%

20222-20549 (40771)

sentrio

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$809.44

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$925.75

Record

50%

25264-24973 (50237)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$4,198.82

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$165.51

Record

52%

705-645 (1350)

Both legs:

Rafael Jodar$472.8539.7¢+$303.25

Casper Ruud$683.7256¢-$137.74

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$1,063.55

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$93.6

Record

45%

412-501 (913)

Research grade

NeutralCasper Ruud at 38%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Casper Ruud

17 of 37 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Rafael Jodar 62%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

37% of non-arb traders are on Casper Ruud. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCasper Ruud 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpCasper Ruud 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrRafael Jodar 73% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedRafael Jodar 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Rafael Jodar 61% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Casper Ruud wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.