Costa do Sauipe: Lucas Da Silva vs Lautaro Midon

14 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Lautaro Midon (70%) · Lautaro Midon at 100¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 9

Lucas Da Silva<1¢Lautaro Midon>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lautaro Midon

Consensus Traders

Lautaro Midon 70%

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

-$226.55

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralLautaro Midon at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lautaro Midon

14 of 20 top traders (70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lucas Da Silva0%

Lautaro Midon100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lautaro Midon14 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares12,420

Combined PnL+$201.92

Lucas Da Silva6 traders

Total Value$351.91

Total Shares3,353

Combined PnL-$428.46

Lautaro Midon — 70%Lucas Da Silva — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Lautaro Midon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLautaro Midon 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrLautaro Midon 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLautaro Midon 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lautaro Midon 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Lautaro Midonavg 66.8¢	$3.0K	$4.2K	+$1.2K	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
MA MadridTime	Lautaro Midonavg 95.5¢	$3.8K	$2.2K	$-1.6K	52% 830-771 (1601)
FL Flaznorp	Lautaro Midonavg 85.8¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$276.21	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
LI LightParadox	Lautaro Midonavg 97.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$2.23	54% 906-787 (1693)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Lautaro Midonavg 67¢	$549.44	$764.17	+$214.73	52% 6711-6252 (12963)
VE Venusian	Lautaro Midonavg 87.1¢	$487.43	$409.62	-$77.81	53% 916-813 (1729)
TH thestingsnake	Lautaro Midonavg 76.9¢	$264.22	$287.74	+$46.05	60% 4225-2826 (7051)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Lucas Da Silvaavg 32¢	$288.42	$278.8	-$9.62	50% 512-509 (1021)
38 38791873984189	Lautaro Midonavg 68.1¢	$257.41	$263.01	+$107.45	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
1L 1lovejump	Lautaro Midonavg 80.3¢	$390.93	$180.81	+$28.81	52% 702-642 (1344)
VeryLucky888<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 69¢	$93.15	$94.42	+$3.27	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 73.7¢	$51.25	$59.2	+$7.95	54% 6054-5063 (11117)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 85.7¢	$49.11	$53.55	+$4.44	57% 18986-14047 (33033)
TRCM<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 89.8¢	$59.82	$42.22	-$17.6	55% 3998-3230 (7228)
LI LimousinCTR	Lucas Da Silvaavg 30.3¢	$405.63	$30.82	-$374.81	56% 942-736 (1678)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Lucas Da Silvaavg 7.7¢	$76.52	$30	-$46.52	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Lucas Da Silvaavg 9.2¢	$8.67	$6.39	-$2.28	51% 6221-5962 (12183)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Lucas Da Silvaavg 33¢	$4.95	$4.73	-$0.22	65% 5090-2759 (7849)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Lautaro Midonavg 74¢	$3.7	$3.4	-$0.4	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Lucas Da Silvaavg 29¢	$26.11	$1.17	+$5	56% 1904-1471 (3375)

RN1

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$2,959.78

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

MadridTime

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$3,829.71

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

Flaznorp

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$1,876.05

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$276.21

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

LightParadox

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$1,456

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$2.23

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

CandleHammerDrums

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$549.44

Value

$764.17

PnL

+$214.73

Record

52%

6711-6252 (12963)

Venusian

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$487.43

Value

$409.62

PnL

-$77.81

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

thestingsnake

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$264.22

Value

$287.74

PnL

+$46.05

Record

60%

4225-2826 (7051)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$288.42

Value

$278.8

PnL

-$9.62

Record

50%

512-509 (1021)

38791873984189

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$257.41

Value

$263.01

PnL

+$107.45

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

1lovejump

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$390.93

Value

$180.81

PnL

+$28.81

Record

52%

702-642 (1344)

VeryLucky888<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$93.15

Value

$94.42

PnL

+$3.27

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

Eulhunter<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$51.25

Value

$59.2

PnL

+$7.95

Record

54%

6054-5063 (11117)

BillBenter2026<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$49.11

Value

$53.55

PnL

+$4.44

Record

57%

18986-14047 (33033)

TRCM<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$59.82

Value

$42.22

PnL

-$17.6

Record

55%

3998-3230 (7228)

LimousinCTR

Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$405.63

Value

$30.82

PnL

-$374.81

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$76.52

Value

$30

PnL

-$46.52

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$8.67

Value

$6.39

PnL

-$2.28

Record

51%

6221-5962 (12183)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.22

Record

65%

5090-2759 (7849)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Lautaro Midon

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$26.11

Value

$1.17

PnL

+$5

Record

56%

1904-1471 (3375)

Research grade

NeutralLautaro Midon at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Lautaro Midon

14 of 20 top traders (70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Lautaro Midon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLautaro Midon 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrLautaro Midon 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLautaro Midon 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lautaro Midon 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lautaro Midon wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.