Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Steelers, while the market favors Browns (51%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Steelers (-3.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Steelers (57%) · Steelers at 50¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 1

Steelers50¢Browns50¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Steelers

Consensus Traders

Steelers 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.6K

Combined PnL

$80.65

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 49.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSteelers at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Steelers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Steelers50%

Browns51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Steelers4 traders

Total Value$18.2K

Total Shares36,794

Combined PnL+$351.73

Browns3 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares22,215

Combined PnL-$271.07

Steelers — 57%Browns — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

117h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Steelers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrowns 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpBrowns 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrSteelers 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSteelers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Steelers 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Steelersavg 48¢	$9.1K	$9.2K	+$143.83	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
└ Steelers leg	Steelersavg 48¢	$5.7K	$5.8K	+$177.08
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 51¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$33.25
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Steelersavg 49¢	$8.8K	$8.9K	+$90.24	53% 915-808 (1723)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Steelersavg 48¢	$8.5K	$8.8K	+$266.34	46% 458-531 (989)
BT BTCGambler247	Brownsavg 52¢	$8.3K	$8.1K	-$240	47% 217-240 (457)
HE Herdonia	Brownsavg 51¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$20.29	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
HI hi774c	Brownsavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10.78	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761dCTR	Steelersavg 50¢	$490.2	$485.29	-$4.9	51% 144-139 (283)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Steelersavg 49¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.05	51% 6525-6188 (12713)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Steelers

Invested

$9,058.21

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$143.83

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Both legs:

Steelers$5,665.0548¢+$177.08

Browns$3,391.3351¢-$33.25

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Steelers

Invested

$8,843.85

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$90.24

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Steelers

Invested

$8,522.14

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$266.34

Record

46%

458-531 (989)

BTCGambler247

Browns

Invested

$8,319.99

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$240

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

Herdonia

Browns

Invested

$2,069.44

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$20.29

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

hi774c

Browns

Invested

$1,100

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10.78

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761dCTR

Steelers

Invested

$490.2

Value

$485.29

PnL

-$4.9

Record

51%

144-139 (283)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Steelers

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

6525-6188 (12713)

Research grade

NeutralSteelers at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Steelers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

117h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Steelers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrowns 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpBrowns 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrSteelers 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSteelers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Steelers 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Steelers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.