Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (75%) · Falcons at 52¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 1

Buccaneers49¢Falcons51¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Falcons

Consensus Traders

Falcons 75%

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$39.97

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 51.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Buccaneers49%

Falcons52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buccaneers2 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,722

Combined PnL+$48.61

Falcons6 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares10,734

Combined PnL-$8.65

Buccaneers — 25%Falcons — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpFalcons 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFalcons 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedFalcons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Falcons 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EdZacharyCTR	Buccaneersavg 48¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$35.59	40% 94-142 (236)
LI lightotunnel35	Falconsavg 52¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$25.36	58% 78-56 (134)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Falconsavg 52¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$13.72	46% 458-531 (989)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Buccaneersavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$13.02	54% 2337-2025 (4362)
AN AnonymousUsername	Falconsavg 50¢	$649.62	$662.61	+$19.49	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
HE Herdonia	Falconsavg 50.7¢	$481.12	$488.89	+$7.77	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
VeryLucky888	Falconsavg 50.9¢	$324.69	$305.48	+$3	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Falconsavg 51.2¢	$34.84	$34.68	+$0.18	57% 29237-21620 (50857)

EdZacharyCTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$3,416.83

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35.59

Record

40%

94-142 (236)

lightotunnel35

Falcons

Invested

$2,637.99

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$25.36

Record

58%

78-56 (134)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Falcons

Invested

$1,427.51

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$13.72

Record

46%

458-531 (989)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,249.92

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$13.02

Record

54%

2337-2025 (4362)

AnonymousUsername

Falcons

Invested

$649.62

Value

$662.61

PnL

+$19.49

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

Herdonia

Falcons

Invested

$481.12

Value

$488.89

PnL

+$7.77

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

VeryLucky888

Falcons

Invested

$324.69

Value

$305.48

PnL

+$3

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Falcons

Invested

$34.84

Value

$34.68

PnL

+$0.18

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpFalcons 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFalcons 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedFalcons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Falcons 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.