Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Raiders, while the market favors Jets (51%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Jets (-1.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (40%) · Raiders at 50¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 1

Jets51¢Raiders49¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Raiders

Consensus Traders

Raiders 40%

Total Value

$37.5K

Combined PnL

-$199.77

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 49.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Jets 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jets51%

Raiders50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raiders4 traders

Total Value$27.1K

Total Shares54,639

Combined PnL-$311.61

Jets6 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares20,805

Combined PnL+$111.83

Raiders — 40%Jets — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpJets 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrJets 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedJets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Raidersavg 50¢	$24.0K	$23.8K	-$240.38	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
EdZachary	Jetsavg 49¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$116.09	40% 94-142 (236)
FO Forecastication2	Jetsavg 50¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$34.8	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
MA MAGATheeStallionCTR	Raidersavg 51¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$58.81	57% 261-193 (454)
AN AnonymousUsername	Jetsavg 49¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$19.46	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Raidersavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$12.41	47% 100-113 (213)
VeryLucky888	Jetsavg 49.9¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$10.6	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Raidersavg 50¢	$62.58	$62.58	+$0	65% 1758-962 (2720)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Jetsavg 49¢	$35.28	$36	+$0.36	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
HE Herdonia<$100	Jetsavg 50¢	$11.35	$11.46	+$0.11	54% 3403-2950 (6353)

takeormakeCTR

Raiders

Invested

$24,038

Value

$23.8K

PnL

-$240.38

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

EdZachary

Jets

Invested

$3,792.24

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$116.09

Record

40%

94-142 (236)

Forecastication2

Jets

Invested

$3,479.5

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$34.8

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

MAGATheeStallionCTR

Raiders

Invested

$1,999.71

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$58.81

Record

57%

261-193 (454)

AnonymousUsername

Jets

Invested

$1,907.07

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$19.46

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

DolphinBallerCTR

Raiders

Invested

$1,258.37

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$12.41

Record

47%

100-113 (213)

VeryLucky888

Jets

Invested

$1,170.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.6

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$62.58

Value

$62.58

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Jets

Invested

$35.28

Value

$36

PnL

+$0.36

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Herdonia<$100

Jets

Invested

$11.35

Value

$11.46

PnL

+$0.11

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Jets 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpJets 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrJets 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedJets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.