Consensus PnL $87K · win rate 85% (2608–460, n=3068) · PM monthly #735 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$87.1K
Record
2608W / 460L
Win Rate
85.0%
of 3068 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#335
Source
PM monthly #735
Trades
1,365
Markets
11,713
Volume
$2.8M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 6 on the consensus side (67%)- Ravens vs. BillsBills $659 · now 92¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (53% of 48)
- Falcons vs. BuccaneersBuccaneers $249 · now 85¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (67% of 48)
- Titans vs. BengalsTitans $159 · now 10¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (Bengals)
- Raiders vs. JetsJets $102 · now 75¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (58% of 64)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ETDown $53 · now 50¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (77% of 22)
- Colts vs. JaguarsColts $11 · now 1¢ · in at 12¢against the consensus (Jaguars)
Specialties
1,752 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 58¢- Crypto
+41 pts
side won 98% of 1675 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +29%
- College Football
+26 pts
side won 98% of 52 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +8%
- NFL
+15 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 85¢
ROI −8%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 60% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 97% of 95)
- 50–70¢: 90%(won 98% of 1571)
- 70¢ and up: 5%(won 100% of 81)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.