Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Andrew Scott win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 18¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 75%
$1.4K
$277.04
15¢ → 18¢
+20% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+2 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
689h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
15 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ImJustKenCTR | Yesavg 14.6¢ | $725.54 | $967.07 | +$241.53 | 53% 3042-2722 (5764) |
 LornaPredicts | Noavg 88¢ | $44 | $109.91 | -$3.57 | 20% 2384-9342 (11726) |
 TheKinginYellowCTR | Yesavg 17¢ | $96.63 | $102.86 | +$6.23 | 68% 830-399 (1229) |
 StarMasterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $80 | $90 | +$10 | 53% 1875-1658 (3533) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $33.6 | $66.8 | +$0.2 | 53% 21911-19053 (40964) |
 20YrsOfBoredomCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.6¢ | $45.05 | $59.4 | +$8.8 | 39% 498-788 (1286) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.2¢ | $5.23 | $18.84 | +$13.79 | 57% 17905-13394 (31299) |
GG GGLPLCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $0.86 | $0.92 | +$0.06 | 50% 725-732 (1457) |
ImJustKenCTRInvested
$725.54
Value
$967.07
PnL
+$241.53
Record
53%
3042-2722 (5764)
LornaPredictsInvested
$44
Value
$109.91
PnL
-$3.57
Record
20%
2384-9342 (11726)
TheKinginYellowCTRInvested
$96.63
Value
$102.86
PnL
+$6.23
Record
68%
830-399 (1229)
StarMasterCTR<$100Invested
$80
Value
$90
PnL
+$10
Record
53%
1875-1658 (3533)
Invested
$33.6
Value
$66.8
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
21911-19053 (40964)
20YrsOfBoredomCTR<$100Invested
$45.05
Value
$59.4
PnL
+$8.8
Record
39%
498-788 (1286)
Invested
$5.23
Value
$18.84
PnL
+$13.79
Record
57%
17905-13394 (31299)
Invested
$0.86
Value
$0.92
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
725-732 (1457)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.