Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 78¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 21, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
$6.8K
-$69.67
78.9¢ → 77.5¢
-2% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
251h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV aviato | Noavg 83.6¢ | $4.7K | $4.3K | -$339.61 | 84% 2458-458 (2916) |
 morito181 | Noavg 73.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$106.84 | 61% 846-548 (1394) |
LI lineth | Noavg 29.9¢ | $65.08 | $168.58 | +$103.5 | 42% 254-350 (604) |
 20YrsOfBoredom | Noavg 88¢ | $17.6 | $141.98 | +$0.35 | 39% 498-788 (1286) |
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $113.06 | $112.5 | +$21.94 | 59% 3608-2503 (6111) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 58.6¢ | $56.03 | $73.61 | +$18.32 | 20% 2375-9309 (11684) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 19.9¢ | $318.93 | $55.3 | +$6.39 | 50% 1695-1680 (3375) |
AM AmericaFirst1<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $19.89 | $30.83 | +$10.94 | 62% 2241-1390 (3631) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79.6¢ | $30.73 | $29.93 | -$0.8 | 57% 17814-13331 (31145) |
CO cowcat<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $5 | $3.88 | +$2.48 | 53% 1578-1414 (2992) |
Invested
$4,673.15
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$339.61
Record
84%
2458-458 (2916)
morito181Invested
$1,786.74
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$106.84
Record
61%
846-548 (1394)
Invested
$65.08
Value
$168.58
PnL
+$103.5
Record
42%
254-350 (604)
20YrsOfBoredomInvested
$17.6
Value
$141.98
PnL
+$0.35
Record
39%
498-788 (1286)
Invested
$113.06
Value
$112.5
PnL
+$21.94
Record
59%
3608-2503 (6111)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$56.03
Value
$73.61
PnL
+$18.32
Record
20%
2375-9309 (11684)
Invested
$318.93
Value
$55.3
PnL
+$6.39
Record
50%
1695-1680 (3375)
Invested
$19.89
Value
$30.83
PnL
+$10.94
Record
62%
2241-1390 (3631)
Invested
$30.73
Value
$29.93
PnL
-$0.8
Record
57%
17814-13331 (31145)
Invested
$5
Value
$3.88
PnL
+$2.48
Record
53%
1578-1414 (2992)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.